Naftprom or Gaznaft? 04/30/2010
Russia stepped up its efforts to woo Ukraine today. In a surprise overture, Prime Minister Putin suggested that the two countries “merge Gazprom and Naftogaz of Ukraine.” If this deal eventually goes through, it will create one of the largest gas holdings in the world.
In January 2009, these companies were at the center of a price dispute in which Russia shut off gas supplies for two days. Around 80% of Russia’s gas destined for Europe travels through Ukraine.
Putin's newest proposition comes just days after a deal to extend the Russian navy’s lease on the Crimean port of Sevastopol. As compensation, Russia agreed to give Kiev a 30% discount on its gas. Ukraine’s opposition reacted by pelting the speaker of the Rada with eggs and setting off smoke bombs in the parliament building. Many people from the western part of the country fear creeping Russification and the loss of sovereignty.
Russia’s press has remained quiet about the upheaval in Ukraine. Several outlets did not even cover it. Others dismissed the event as a stunt and drew attention to the corruption charges that are pending against former Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko.
According to Freedom House, the Russian government owns or directly controls 80% of Russia's media. Gazprom, in particular, has a huge stake in many newspapers and TV stations. When a story does not appear in print, you can assume that they had something to do with it.
In January 2009, these companies were at the center of a price dispute in which Russia shut off gas supplies for two days. Around 80% of Russia’s gas destined for Europe travels through Ukraine.
Putin's newest proposition comes just days after a deal to extend the Russian navy’s lease on the Crimean port of Sevastopol. As compensation, Russia agreed to give Kiev a 30% discount on its gas. Ukraine’s opposition reacted by pelting the speaker of the Rada with eggs and setting off smoke bombs in the parliament building. Many people from the western part of the country fear creeping Russification and the loss of sovereignty.
Russia’s press has remained quiet about the upheaval in Ukraine. Several outlets did not even cover it. Others dismissed the event as a stunt and drew attention to the corruption charges that are pending against former Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko.
According to Freedom House, the Russian government owns or directly controls 80% of Russia's media. Gazprom, in particular, has a huge stake in many newspapers and TV stations. When a story does not appear in print, you can assume that they had something to do with it.
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Noah Millman’s attempts at getting past the liberal-conservative dichotomy have been making the rounds across the blogosphere. Here is his basic taxonomy, which I think is useful:
Liberal vs. Conservative (attitudes towards the individual and authority)
Left vs. Right (attitudes toward social/economic winners and losers)
Progressive vs. Reactionary (attitude towards past and future)
I’d say that I’m a liberal progressive on the first and last counts, and probably on the (American) left in terms of economic winners and losers, if that means regulating Wall Street and offering healthcare to those who can’t afford it. Where do you guys fit?
Now, the task is up to us to create a matrix for attitudes towards foreign policy….
Liberal vs. Conservative (attitudes towards the individual and authority)
Left vs. Right (attitudes toward social/economic winners and losers)
Progressive vs. Reactionary (attitude towards past and future)
I’d say that I’m a liberal progressive on the first and last counts, and probably on the (American) left in terms of economic winners and losers, if that means regulating Wall Street and offering healthcare to those who can’t afford it. Where do you guys fit?
Now, the task is up to us to create a matrix for attitudes towards foreign policy….
PBOM Time Warp 04/27/2010
Back when knowing a bit of HTML meant you were practically Bill Gates
Ever wondered what Politics by Other Means would look like if it were a Geocities page circa 1996? Click here to find out. Oh and make sure your sound is up for the full experience.
Watch/Read This: April 27, 2010 04/27/2010
Is HRW Anti-Israel? (The New Republic)
On October 19 of last year, the op-ed page of The New York Times contained a bombshell: a piece by Robert Bernstein, the founder and former chairman of Human Rights Watch (HRW), attacking his own organization. HRW, Bernstein wrote, was “helping those who wish to turn Israel into a pariah state.” The allegation was certainly not new: HRW had been under assault for years by American Jews and other supporters of Israel, who argued that it was biased against the Jewish state. And these attacks had intensified in recent months, with a number of unflattering revelations about the organization.
Just What Sudan Needs: Chinese Election Monitors (Wealth of Nations)
Both China and the usual Western nations sent observers to monitor Sudan's recent elections, but they didn't seem to be watching the same polls. While Washington criticized the vote that returned Omar al-Bashir to power for "serious irregularities," Beijing called the affair a "smooth and orderly…success." The difference isn't entirely surprising: the West views Bashir as the mastermind of the Darfur slaughter, while China sees him as a business partner who has granted Beijing billions of dollars in oil deals over the past 15 years.
On October 19 of last year, the op-ed page of The New York Times contained a bombshell: a piece by Robert Bernstein, the founder and former chairman of Human Rights Watch (HRW), attacking his own organization. HRW, Bernstein wrote, was “helping those who wish to turn Israel into a pariah state.” The allegation was certainly not new: HRW had been under assault for years by American Jews and other supporters of Israel, who argued that it was biased against the Jewish state. And these attacks had intensified in recent months, with a number of unflattering revelations about the organization.
Just What Sudan Needs: Chinese Election Monitors (Wealth of Nations)
Both China and the usual Western nations sent observers to monitor Sudan's recent elections, but they didn't seem to be watching the same polls. While Washington criticized the vote that returned Omar al-Bashir to power for "serious irregularities," Beijing called the affair a "smooth and orderly…success." The difference isn't entirely surprising: the West views Bashir as the mastermind of the Darfur slaughter, while China sees him as a business partner who has granted Beijing billions of dollars in oil deals over the past 15 years.
Gaddafi Speaks! 04/27/2010
Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, PBOM’s favorite world leader, spoke to the World Affairs Councils of America yesterday via video link. Unfortunately, I can’t find the video, so the best I can do is provide highlights from David Millibank and the Palestine Note:
Gaddafi on Obama:
"I really endorse and support the policies that he has adopted so far…He comes from, originally from a Muslim family, maybe even of an Arab origin…And at least psychologically, it was very useful."
Gaddafi also congratulated Obama for having "condemned the war in Vietnam." [The Vietnam War ended when Obama was 13]
On Saddam Hussein:
His execution was "really sad."
On Women:
Women should be "reproducers" and avoid "male vocations." [or they should be virgin bodyguards]. This is part of the natural “division of labor.”
On Israel:
A single state, modeled after Lebanon, called Isratine. "I think this is a historical -- a final solution." [The Final Solution was also the Nazi phrase for the holocaust]
On Obama’s ramping up of the Afghanistan War:
"As a military person myself, I can understand the military aspect of this," he said, calling the troop increase "irrelevant" because withdrawal will follow.
Guests were also treated to free copies of Gaddafi’s “green book”, in which the Brother of the Revolution outlines his famed political philosophy. On a more serious note, Gaddafi appeared irritated that he was not invited to Obama's Nuclear Summit, despite having peacefully renounced his own nuclear weapons program.
Gaddafi on Obama:
"I really endorse and support the policies that he has adopted so far…He comes from, originally from a Muslim family, maybe even of an Arab origin…And at least psychologically, it was very useful."
Gaddafi also congratulated Obama for having "condemned the war in Vietnam." [The Vietnam War ended when Obama was 13]
On Saddam Hussein:
His execution was "really sad."
On Women:
Women should be "reproducers" and avoid "male vocations." [or they should be virgin bodyguards]. This is part of the natural “division of labor.”
On Israel:
A single state, modeled after Lebanon, called Isratine. "I think this is a historical -- a final solution." [The Final Solution was also the Nazi phrase for the holocaust]
On Obama’s ramping up of the Afghanistan War:
"As a military person myself, I can understand the military aspect of this," he said, calling the troop increase "irrelevant" because withdrawal will follow.
Guests were also treated to free copies of Gaddafi’s “green book”, in which the Brother of the Revolution outlines his famed political philosophy. On a more serious note, Gaddafi appeared irritated that he was not invited to Obama's Nuclear Summit, despite having peacefully renounced his own nuclear weapons program.
Trouble in Rus' 04/26/2010
Where is my discount?
Russia’s relations with Ukraine and Belarus have been going in opposite directions recently. In Ukraine, the election of Viktor Yanukovich as president brought about a quick rapprochement with Moscow. Belarus, on the other hand, has been embroiled in a trade war with the Medvedev administration over subsidies on everything from gas to milk. After almost a decade in which Minsk was Russia’s only reliable ally in the region, Ukraine seems to have supplanted it.
Belarus’ resentment at this new state of affairs came to the fore on Sunday. As part of a press conference, President Alexander Lukashenko was asked to comment on a new deal that gives Russia access to the Crimean port of Sevastopol in exchange for a 30% discount on the price of its gas. In response, he lashed out at Russia’s leaders, saying that “if the president of Russia has forgotten about Baranovichi and Velejka [Russian military bases in Belarus], we need to remind him.” He also complained that Russia pays “zero rubles, zero kopecks, and zero dollars” to use these installations.
Ironically, the Ukrainian interior ministry has just begun talks about forming a union of the three countries. According to polling data, more than sixty percent of Ukrainians now support this idea. Since 2000, Belarus and Russia have technically been united in the so-called Union State. Both of these alliances could be in jeopardy if relations continue to sour.
Belarus’ resentment at this new state of affairs came to the fore on Sunday. As part of a press conference, President Alexander Lukashenko was asked to comment on a new deal that gives Russia access to the Crimean port of Sevastopol in exchange for a 30% discount on the price of its gas. In response, he lashed out at Russia’s leaders, saying that “if the president of Russia has forgotten about Baranovichi and Velejka [Russian military bases in Belarus], we need to remind him.” He also complained that Russia pays “zero rubles, zero kopecks, and zero dollars” to use these installations.
Ironically, the Ukrainian interior ministry has just begun talks about forming a union of the three countries. According to polling data, more than sixty percent of Ukrainians now support this idea. Since 2000, Belarus and Russia have technically been united in the so-called Union State. Both of these alliances could be in jeopardy if relations continue to sour.
Read This: April 26, 2010 04/26/2010
Forden Explains the Sinking of the Cheonan (ArmsControlWonk)
One of the “mysteries” surrounding the sinking of the ROK’s warship, Cheonan, is that the explosion split the ship in half, a result our popular culture has trained us to forget. After all, World War II movies always show a torpedo strike in the same way: one or two white streaks quickly approaching the ship followed by a localized jet of water where the torpedo struck the hull. Sailors stream out of their bunks to jump over the side as the ship keels over, taking in water. [...] These movies have influenced our expectations for the damage caused by modern torpedoes even though there are much more efficient ways for a torpedo to destroy a surface ship. [...] Significantly more damage can be cause by the same, or even smaller, explosive detonated significantly below the keel of a warship.
Should the US push for Turkey to Join the EU? (Larison)
In the wake of the Greek debt crisis and the financial woes of many new EU members in central and eastern Europe, it is doubtful that the major EU member states would want to have anything to do with expanding to include Turkey. To the extent that European federalism is gaining strength politically, expansion will seem less desirable. It has been the goal of opponents of EU consolidation to dilute the Union through expansion, but there is not much Euroskeptic support for Turkish membership, either. This is because there is enough nationalist and anti-immigration sentiment across much of Europe to make Turkish accession unpopular for reasons that have nothing to do with the functioning of the EU. Even if it were prudent to apply pressure on behalf of Turkey, what leverage does Washington have that could overcome all of this?
One of the “mysteries” surrounding the sinking of the ROK’s warship, Cheonan, is that the explosion split the ship in half, a result our popular culture has trained us to forget. After all, World War II movies always show a torpedo strike in the same way: one or two white streaks quickly approaching the ship followed by a localized jet of water where the torpedo struck the hull. Sailors stream out of their bunks to jump over the side as the ship keels over, taking in water. [...] These movies have influenced our expectations for the damage caused by modern torpedoes even though there are much more efficient ways for a torpedo to destroy a surface ship. [...] Significantly more damage can be cause by the same, or even smaller, explosive detonated significantly below the keel of a warship.
Should the US push for Turkey to Join the EU? (Larison)
In the wake of the Greek debt crisis and the financial woes of many new EU members in central and eastern Europe, it is doubtful that the major EU member states would want to have anything to do with expanding to include Turkey. To the extent that European federalism is gaining strength politically, expansion will seem less desirable. It has been the goal of opponents of EU consolidation to dilute the Union through expansion, but there is not much Euroskeptic support for Turkish membership, either. This is because there is enough nationalist and anti-immigration sentiment across much of Europe to make Turkish accession unpopular for reasons that have nothing to do with the functioning of the EU. Even if it were prudent to apply pressure on behalf of Turkey, what leverage does Washington have that could overcome all of this?
The protesters may be out of Azadi Square, but the effects of last summer's upheaval are still reverberating in Iran. As I've written previously, the significance of the protests wasn't what was happening on the streets, but what was happening behind the scenes. Turns out that internal turmoil in Tehran has also been a boon for Western intelligence gathering efforts:
Iran's political turmoil has prompted a growing number of the country's officials to defect or leak information to the West, creating a new flow of intelligence about its secretive nuclear program, U.S. officials said.
The gains have complicated work on a long-awaited assessment of Iran's nuclear activities, a report that will represent the combined judgment of more than a dozen U.S. spy agencies. The National Intelligence Estimate was due last fall but has been delayed at least twice amid efforts to incorporate information from sources who are still being vetted. [...]
Some of the most significant new material has come from informants, including scientists and others with access to Iran's military programs, who are motivated by antipathy toward the government and its suppression of the opposition movement after a disputed presidential election in June, according to current and former officials in the United States and Europe who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the intelligence gains.
"There is a wealth of information-sharing going on, and it reflects enormous discontent among Iranian technocrats," said a former U.S. government official who until recently was privy to classified reports about intelligence-gathering inside Iran. He said that among senior technocrats in the nuclear program and other fields, "the morale is very low."
While patience isn't a popular, it is essential for dealing with Iran. For all Tehran's bluster, its nuclear and traditional weapons program are faltering. The best course of action is to continue to let our intelligence agencies do what we pay them to do: gather information about the exact specs and location of Iran's nuclear installations and wreak havoc behind the scenes by turning key scientists, diplomats, and members of the security service.
-Evan
Iran's political turmoil has prompted a growing number of the country's officials to defect or leak information to the West, creating a new flow of intelligence about its secretive nuclear program, U.S. officials said.
The gains have complicated work on a long-awaited assessment of Iran's nuclear activities, a report that will represent the combined judgment of more than a dozen U.S. spy agencies. The National Intelligence Estimate was due last fall but has been delayed at least twice amid efforts to incorporate information from sources who are still being vetted. [...]
Some of the most significant new material has come from informants, including scientists and others with access to Iran's military programs, who are motivated by antipathy toward the government and its suppression of the opposition movement after a disputed presidential election in June, according to current and former officials in the United States and Europe who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the intelligence gains.
"There is a wealth of information-sharing going on, and it reflects enormous discontent among Iranian technocrats," said a former U.S. government official who until recently was privy to classified reports about intelligence-gathering inside Iran. He said that among senior technocrats in the nuclear program and other fields, "the morale is very low."
While patience isn't a popular, it is essential for dealing with Iran. For all Tehran's bluster, its nuclear and traditional weapons program are faltering. The best course of action is to continue to let our intelligence agencies do what we pay them to do: gather information about the exact specs and location of Iran's nuclear installations and wreak havoc behind the scenes by turning key scientists, diplomats, and members of the security service.
-Evan
Turkmenistan Tourism Vid Part II 04/23/2010
I think my obsession with tourism videos from Central Asia and the Caucasus has reached an unhealthy level.
Video Highlights:
1:01 Berdimuhamedov looking pensive.
1:10 Western consultant BSing
1:30 Construction site or bombed out hotel in the desert?
1:45 Sand removal fail
Etc.
Video Highlights:
1:01 Berdimuhamedov looking pensive.
1:10 Western consultant BSing
1:30 Construction site or bombed out hotel in the desert?
1:45 Sand removal fail
Etc.
Read This: April 22, 2010 04/22/2010
Bryza to Baku (Finally)? (LeVine)
I've received confirmation that -- after the clearing of a couple of remaining administrative hurdles -- the White House will officially nominate Bryza as U.S. ambassador. He will then be scheduled for a nomination hearing in the Sentate. The hearings should be lively. For starters, Bryza himself has been something of a lighting rod of attention. This blog has written about his time as deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs.
Over recent years, I received fairly frequent emails griping about this or that impolitic (read: anti-Russian) speech that Bryza delivered on his journeys, and his inexhaustible supply of rationales for building the ill-fated Nabucco natural gas pipeline. Bryza seemed to rub the Foggy Bottom crowd the wrong way when he made no secret of his desire for the Azeri post, and when it seemed he might get it since he was a favorite of Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice.
The Greatest Deterrent of All (Munayyer, LA Times)
The reality of Palestinian casualties, the destruction of Jerusalem, the onset of regional war and the immediate destruction of Iran's regime as a result of a multilateral conventional or even nuclear counterattack all serve as a credible deterrent to a nuclear Iran. The Iranian leadership has shown a demonstrable interest in self-preservation
De Waal Reviews "A Little War that Shook the World: Georgia, Russia and the Future of the West" (The National Interest)
To truly decode the “Russia threat,” we must inevitably return to the events of the five-day war of August 2008 and the age-old question: “Who is to blame?” Ronald Asmus, executive director of the Transatlantic Center at the German Marshall Fund, has his answer, in book-long form. For him, the 2008 war was a preplanned Russian military intervention in Georgia, designed to halt Saakashvili’s choice to “go West.” Russia was punishing a small neighbor that dared to defy it by choosing a Western model of democratic development: “The more successful Tbilisi was, the more hostile and worried Moscow became.”
I've received confirmation that -- after the clearing of a couple of remaining administrative hurdles -- the White House will officially nominate Bryza as U.S. ambassador. He will then be scheduled for a nomination hearing in the Sentate. The hearings should be lively. For starters, Bryza himself has been something of a lighting rod of attention. This blog has written about his time as deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs.
Over recent years, I received fairly frequent emails griping about this or that impolitic (read: anti-Russian) speech that Bryza delivered on his journeys, and his inexhaustible supply of rationales for building the ill-fated Nabucco natural gas pipeline. Bryza seemed to rub the Foggy Bottom crowd the wrong way when he made no secret of his desire for the Azeri post, and when it seemed he might get it since he was a favorite of Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice.
The Greatest Deterrent of All (Munayyer, LA Times)
The reality of Palestinian casualties, the destruction of Jerusalem, the onset of regional war and the immediate destruction of Iran's regime as a result of a multilateral conventional or even nuclear counterattack all serve as a credible deterrent to a nuclear Iran. The Iranian leadership has shown a demonstrable interest in self-preservation
De Waal Reviews "A Little War that Shook the World: Georgia, Russia and the Future of the West" (The National Interest)
To truly decode the “Russia threat,” we must inevitably return to the events of the five-day war of August 2008 and the age-old question: “Who is to blame?” Ronald Asmus, executive director of the Transatlantic Center at the German Marshall Fund, has his answer, in book-long form. For him, the 2008 war was a preplanned Russian military intervention in Georgia, designed to halt Saakashvili’s choice to “go West.” Russia was punishing a small neighbor that dared to defy it by choosing a Western model of democratic development: “The more successful Tbilisi was, the more hostile and worried Moscow became.”
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