"Reading Tarot Cards on K Street" by Philip Tetlock, The National Interest,  September/October 2009.

Money quote: Karl Marx hit the nail on the head when he quipped that, when the train of history hits a curve, the intellectuals fall off. But there is still great potential for mischief in the political-forecasting business. The demand for accurate predictions is insatiable. Reliable suppliers are few and far between. And this gap between demand and supply creates opportunities for unscrupulous suppliers to fill the void by gulling desperate customers into thinking they are getting something no one else knows how to provide.

Doesn't exist.  In the rush to expand the Iraqi Army, there has been little effort to create an air force. 

While this might sound unimportant from a hierarchy of needs standpoint, it is a useful reminder that Iraq is not really prepared to take over its own sovereignty.

No country can control its borders if it can't control its airspace, and Iraq lives in a tough neighborhood. Northern Iraq is already subject to regular bombing campaigns by Turkey. Iraq has generally unfavorable relations with the Sunni Arab Gulf states. Iran is a friend, but has been meddling in Iraqi affairs ever since the 2003 invasion. Syria is still its unpredictable, mischievous self. 

More importantly for the U.S., Iraqi armed forces are reluctant to attack insurgents without air support.  They are accustomed to executing combat missions with American air cover- the finest in the world.  How will they fight insurgents once America leaves?

Earlier this summer Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki appeared to have a strong hold on political life in Iraq. He had silenced both his Sunni and Shiite rivals and was riding a wave of popularity after having pushed the US Army back to its bases. 

Funny how much can change in two months.

In the aftermath of the August 20 bombing of the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, al-Maliki's political standing and popular support are once again precarious. Old political rivalries are back as is the perception that things are getting worse in Iraq. Here is the Economist's take:

"Like a hormonal teenager, Iraqi politics evolves in spurts. Just take these past weeks. The insurgency has revived, culminating in a series of audacious and bloody attacks in the heart of Baghdad. And that has turned the fortunes of the prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki, on their head. From being a shoo-in at the next election, the man who was supposed to have tamed the terrorists is now looking more like a has-been. Rivals are lining up to take him on and old alliances are unravelling. All that Iraqis know for sure is that they have reached another turning-point in their turbulent post-invasion history." Full article here.
 

The answer, surprisingly, is incumbent and New Delhi favorite Hamid Karzai.

On the surface, the incredible expansion of Indian influence in Afghanistan during Karzai's tenure seems to pose a threat to Pakistan's perceived interest. Since 2001 India has given Afghanistan $1.2 billion in development assistance for projects ranging from the construction of a new parliament building in Kabul to the education of Afghan bureaucrats in India. Moreover, Karzai has a long history of personal connections to India stretching back to his college days at Himachal Pradesh University.

Lest we forget, in 2008 Pakistani intelligence backed an attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul in a desperate attempt to impede India's growing influence in Kabul. Why would the Pakistani government refrain from interfering with Karzai's reelection bid this time around?

The answer is simple: The Zardari administration, in contrast to the Musharraf administration, values stability in Afghanistan over influence.  

"From a Pakistan perspective, an Afghanistan that returns to deep instability as it has in the past, specifically in the 1990s, would be a cause for concern for Pakistan because it would probably bring greater instability inside Pakistan," says Daniel Markey, a Pakistan expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Karzai--for Islamabad's money--is a better bet to bring stability to Afghanistan than the relatively unknown Abdullah Abdullah.

That's right-- the Almana Group is bringing Winston-Salem's finest donuts to Turkey. According to the Charlotte Business Journal, the Qatar-based firm, which is also responsibly for introducing KFC and Pizza Hut to Turkey, plans to open 25 locations in Turkish cities over the next five years. Absolute scam*.

I for one cannot wait to eat a dozen Blueberry Old Fashioned donuts in Konya. Here's to globalization, eh.

*Note: In this context the word "scam" means anything ridiculous that comes from the developing world. Please see the "Scam Watch" category or consult our good friend Dimitri Lemos for details.

No political thriller, be it literature or film, is complete without a ticking time-bomb scenario. In a classic example of life imitating art (anyone know the full Oscar Wilde quote?) Iran watchers have readily adopted the metaphor to describe Iran's long march toward nuclear the bomb. 

The problem is that no one can seem to figure out exactly how much time is left is left on the clock or how fast it is ticking.

The Israelis claim that Iran will have the capacity to build a crude nuclear weapon by the end of the year. In July CJCS Adm. Mullen seemed to agree with Jerusalem's assessment. But the Israelis have been saying the same thing since the mid-1990s and Mullen's statement contradicts previous US intelligence reports. 

So what are we to believe?

Joshua Pollack, an intrepid blogger at armscontrolwonk.com, does a great job of hashing out what these numbers mean, how they are derived and ultimately why the ticking time bomb metaphor isn't a particularly good way to conceptualize Iran's nuclear program. Check out the full article and subsequent debate (armcontrolwonk.com's readers are smart folks) here.

Despite the recent 17,000 troop surge in Afghanistan, American military commanders still say they need more troops.

I don't want to drop the V word.  But America needs to take a clear, hard look at its interests in Afghanistan.  We won't be able to stay forever.  And the Taliban doesn't even have to win; it just has to make sure that it doesn't lose.

I've always had an interest in trying foreign foods.  While living in Turkey last year, someone once mentioned tavuk göğsü--chicken breast pudding--and I was immediately intrigued.  It was exotic enough to make for a good story, but harmless enough (c'mon, its just chicken with milk!) that I didn't have any reservations about trying it.

When I first had the chance to tavuk göğsü, I was shocked-- it was absolutely delicious, and it didn't taste the slightest bit like chicken.  I've had it many times since then, but it's always remained somewhat of a mystery to me.   

Although I still don't quite understand how the chicken gets into the pudding, Michelle Humes at the Atlantic has an excellent review of tavuk göğüsü's forgotten history as a European staple, and why it's legacy is lost in the West.

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