Attempts to discourage or impede Iran's nuclear program have, in large part, failed. Iran today is closer to having a nuclear weapon than ever before. Yet many commentators and politicians in the West are still bound, seemingly by religious conviction, to the very same tactics that have only perpetuated the crisis.
For too long our Iran strategy has oscillated between sanctions, which have a dismal track record and are nearly impossible to enforce, and the explicit threat of violence, an option that the West has neither the stomach nor the resources to implement. It is clear that we need new, imaginative ideas if we intend to gain leverage and ultimately halt Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon.
Unfortunately, our nation's many think tank dwellers and political pundits seem at a loss to provide such ideas. I do not think it is an overstatement to say that the lack of imagination and foresight on the part of Western strategists represents just as pernicious a threat to international security as Iran's ballistic missile and uranium enrichment programs.
Thankfully, there are a few thinkers out there who are still coming up with inventive solutions. Over the next week, we will highlight a series of alternative ideas to address Iran's nuclear ambition.
First up, Geoffrey Forden and John Thomson's proposal to short-circuit Iran's covert uranium enrichment efforts by establishing a multinational uranium enrichment facility hosted by the Iranians in exchange for Tehran's acceptance of expanded inspection protocols.
More after the jump --->
For too long our Iran strategy has oscillated between sanctions, which have a dismal track record and are nearly impossible to enforce, and the explicit threat of violence, an option that the West has neither the stomach nor the resources to implement. It is clear that we need new, imaginative ideas if we intend to gain leverage and ultimately halt Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon.
Unfortunately, our nation's many think tank dwellers and political pundits seem at a loss to provide such ideas. I do not think it is an overstatement to say that the lack of imagination and foresight on the part of Western strategists represents just as pernicious a threat to international security as Iran's ballistic missile and uranium enrichment programs.
Thankfully, there are a few thinkers out there who are still coming up with inventive solutions. Over the next week, we will highlight a series of alternative ideas to address Iran's nuclear ambition.
First up, Geoffrey Forden and John Thomson's proposal to short-circuit Iran's covert uranium enrichment efforts by establishing a multinational uranium enrichment facility hosted by the Iranians in exchange for Tehran's acceptance of expanded inspection protocols.
More after the jump --->
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Inside the ISI 09/29/2009
David Ignatius provides rare insight into Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence directorate and its view on the war in Afghanistan:
In the ISI's view, America makes a mistake in thinking it must solve every problem on its own. In Afghanistan, it should work with President Hamid Karzai, who, for all his imperfections, has one essential quality that American strategist lack -- he's an Afghan. ISI officials suggest that Karzai should capitalize on the post-election ferment by calling for a cease-fire so that he can forma broadly based government that includes some Taliban representatives.
In the ISI's view, America makes a mistake in thinking it must solve every problem on its own. In Afghanistan, it should work with President Hamid Karzai, who, for all his imperfections, has one essential quality that American strategist lack -- he's an Afghan. ISI officials suggest that Karzai should capitalize on the post-election ferment by calling for a cease-fire so that he can forma broadly based government that includes some Taliban representatives.
News That Really Matters 09/28/2009
Goths love Obama!
Those who visit the site regularly have probably notice that we have been largely absent from the Iran debate. Jon and I are both in the process of relocating and unfortunately haven't had the time necessary to blog. Rest assured, we'll be back on it by the middle of the week.
Hat tip to Chaz for the picture.
Those who visit the site regularly have probably notice that we have been largely absent from the Iran debate. Jon and I are both in the process of relocating and unfortunately haven't had the time necessary to blog. Rest assured, we'll be back on it by the middle of the week.
Hat tip to Chaz for the picture.
China to Support Sanctions on Iran? 09/26/2009
Chinese President Hu Jintao with Ahmadinejad
Bloomberg reported last month that China inked a deal with Iran to help the Iranians expand their oil refining capacity. Remember, one of the main "crippling" sanctions is a restriction on Iranian gasoline imports-- Iran has tons of oil, but little ability to turn it into gasoline.
Unless you've been living in a cave the past few days, you already know that sanctions against Iran have gathered tremendous momentum over the past few days, after Iran preemptively informed the IAEA of furtive nuclear operations in the mountains near Qom. Rather than serve as a news wire, our blog's goal is to analyze developments shed light on issues that don't get enough attention. We'll have more coming soon.
Unless you've been living in a cave the past few days, you already know that sanctions against Iran have gathered tremendous momentum over the past few days, after Iran preemptively informed the IAEA of furtive nuclear operations in the mountains near Qom. Rather than serve as a news wire, our blog's goal is to analyze developments shed light on issues that don't get enough attention. We'll have more coming soon.
Dead Hand? 09/23/2009
The Doomsday Device: Not Just a Figment of Kubrick's Imagination
Here is a bit of Cold War trivia: Did you know that the Soviets actually had a real doomsday device? If you didn't, don't worry; even former CIA Director James Woolsey--until recently--wasn't aware.
Originally known as Perimeter, but often referred to as Dead Hand, Moscow's doomsday device was intended to ensure that the Soviets could respond to a US attack even if its military command structure was wiped out.
Here is how it worked: Dead Hand was equipped with sensors to detect both seismic activity and radiation in the atmosphere. In the event that either sensor registered a reading indicative of a nuclear attack, Dead Hand would send a message to Soviet General Staff. If the message bounced back because the communication line was down, the system would then send the necessary launch codes directly to lower level commanders at each Russian missile facility bypassing the traditional human chain of command.
The argument for such a system is that it lessens the chance of an accidental launch by taking the pressure off leaders to respond at the first sign of attack. Retaliation is assured, so there is no need to launch your missiles when you are 50/50 on whether the other guy actually launched his. The computer will take care of the whole revenge thing whether you are around or not.
The real shocker is that Dead Hand isn't just a piece of Cold War trivia. It remains a part of Russia nuclear defense strategy to this day. Want to learn more? Check out Nicholas Thompson's excellent new article on the origins and use of Dead Hand in the most recent issue of Wired Magazine.
Originally known as Perimeter, but often referred to as Dead Hand, Moscow's doomsday device was intended to ensure that the Soviets could respond to a US attack even if its military command structure was wiped out.
Here is how it worked: Dead Hand was equipped with sensors to detect both seismic activity and radiation in the atmosphere. In the event that either sensor registered a reading indicative of a nuclear attack, Dead Hand would send a message to Soviet General Staff. If the message bounced back because the communication line was down, the system would then send the necessary launch codes directly to lower level commanders at each Russian missile facility bypassing the traditional human chain of command.
The argument for such a system is that it lessens the chance of an accidental launch by taking the pressure off leaders to respond at the first sign of attack. Retaliation is assured, so there is no need to launch your missiles when you are 50/50 on whether the other guy actually launched his. The computer will take care of the whole revenge thing whether you are around or not.
The real shocker is that Dead Hand isn't just a piece of Cold War trivia. It remains a part of Russia nuclear defense strategy to this day. Want to learn more? Check out Nicholas Thompson's excellent new article on the origins and use of Dead Hand in the most recent issue of Wired Magazine.
The Qaddafi Tent Controversy 09/23/2009
To the city of Bedford, New York: Let Qaddafi set up his goddamn tents! From the BBC:
The erection of the tent "violated several codes and laws of the town of Bedford", attorney Joel Sachs says. It also emerged the Bedouin-style tent was being set up on property rented from real estate mogul Donald Trump. Col Qaddafi had reportedly planned to use the tent for entertaining during the UN General Assembly in New York.
Libyan officials have so far not publicly commented on the issue. Col Qaddafi - who arrived in New York on Tuesday - traditionally shuns official residences during his trips abroad.
Update: Qaddafi's statement at the UN General Assembly's opening ceremony went just about as well as his attempt set up this tents in Bedford. How bad was it? He called the UN Security Council the "Terror Council."
Update 2: Foreign Policy has pictures of Qaddafi's meltdown here.
The erection of the tent "violated several codes and laws of the town of Bedford", attorney Joel Sachs says. It also emerged the Bedouin-style tent was being set up on property rented from real estate mogul Donald Trump. Col Qaddafi had reportedly planned to use the tent for entertaining during the UN General Assembly in New York.
Libyan officials have so far not publicly commented on the issue. Col Qaddafi - who arrived in New York on Tuesday - traditionally shuns official residences during his trips abroad.
Update: Qaddafi's statement at the UN General Assembly's opening ceremony went just about as well as his attempt set up this tents in Bedford. How bad was it? He called the UN Security Council the "Terror Council."
Update 2: Foreign Policy has pictures of Qaddafi's meltdown here.
Thomas Friedman Writes a Good Article 09/20/2009
He's been in a slump, but this one on a gas tax is well worth reading. To his credit, Friedman has been banging the drum about taxing gasoline for as long and as strongly as anybody. The idea is not new, but the effort to frame the tax as a masculine national security imperative is crucial to getting weak-kneed U.S. policymakers to do what should have been done 40 years ago. Friedman hits this note as well as anybody.
Us Americans like to think that we are "man" enough to face a dangerous world with force while the Europeans pussyfoot around. But meanwhile we are unable to take a simple measure that would greatly strengthen our geopolitical position. It is an issue that honest policymakers have had a consensus on for decades- which has the added bonus of helping to prevent carbon dioxide from ruining our planet. What will it take for politicians to get this done already?
- Jon
Us Americans like to think that we are "man" enough to face a dangerous world with force while the Europeans pussyfoot around. But meanwhile we are unable to take a simple measure that would greatly strengthen our geopolitical position. It is an issue that honest policymakers have had a consensus on for decades- which has the added bonus of helping to prevent carbon dioxide from ruining our planet. What will it take for politicians to get this done already?
- Jon
Map of Pakistan by Stratfor
Read the entire piece when you have time. Here is a snippet about the underreported Baloch insurgency in Pakistan:
Balochistan is Pakistan's largest province, comprising 48 percent of its territory and sharing a long border with southern Afghanistan; but it is a land of rugged mountains and deserts, with a population of only 12 million people. Ever since Pakistan's creation in 1947, the Baloch tribes have been in revolt against what they see as the chauvinism and denial of their rights by the Pakistani army in favor of Punjab, the country's most populous province, with 86 million people.
In five major insurgencies against the army, the Baloch have demanded greater autonomy, royalties for the province's gas, development funds, and genuine political representation. The fifth insurgency began in 2005 and has intensified because of the brutal repression and hundreds of "disappearances" of Baloch nationalists, for which the army under former President Pervez Musharraf was responsible.
Click "Read More" to Continue ------>
Balochistan is Pakistan's largest province, comprising 48 percent of its territory and sharing a long border with southern Afghanistan; but it is a land of rugged mountains and deserts, with a population of only 12 million people. Ever since Pakistan's creation in 1947, the Baloch tribes have been in revolt against what they see as the chauvinism and denial of their rights by the Pakistani army in favor of Punjab, the country's most populous province, with 86 million people.
In five major insurgencies against the army, the Baloch have demanded greater autonomy, royalties for the province's gas, development funds, and genuine political representation. The fifth insurgency began in 2005 and has intensified because of the brutal repression and hundreds of "disappearances" of Baloch nationalists, for which the army under former President Pervez Musharraf was responsible.
Click "Read More" to Continue ------>
While We Are Talking About the IAEA... 09/19/2009
Fat Man, The Original Implosion Based Bomb
The Guardian is reporting that a "secret annex" the IAEA's recent report on Iran's nuclear program describes the significant progress the Iranian have made toward building an implosion nuclear warhead (for you visual learners, here is a gif):
The annexe said Iranian scientists had engaged in "probable testing" of explosives arranged in a hemisphere, which is how an implosion-type nuclear warhead is triggered.
There was also evidence, the report says, that Iran had worked on developing a chamber to carry a warhead on top of one of its missiles "that is quite likely to be nuclear".
This news should of course be taken with some caution. In the coming weeks, information and disinformation campaigns regarding Iran's capabilities and intentions will make it hard to decipher which reports are valid and which are well placed leaks.
The annexe said Iranian scientists had engaged in "probable testing" of explosives arranged in a hemisphere, which is how an implosion-type nuclear warhead is triggered.
There was also evidence, the report says, that Iran had worked on developing a chamber to carry a warhead on top of one of its missiles "that is quite likely to be nuclear".
This news should of course be taken with some caution. In the coming weeks, information and disinformation campaigns regarding Iran's capabilities and intentions will make it hard to decipher which reports are valid and which are well placed leaks.
IAEA Pushes Israel on Nuclear Prorgam 09/18/2009
In a surprising move, IAEA members voted to urge Israel to join the Non-Proliferation Treaty and allow the international watchdog to inspect its facilities.
The non-binding resolution represents the first time in 18 years that the IAEA has formally addressed Israel's nuclear program, although it isn't the first time it has tried. The reason for the success of the current initiative is that a preponderance of voting IAEA members currently come from the developing world.
Israel's response, as expected, was basically cute try guys--you aren't getting anywhere near our facilities:
"Israel will not cooperate in any matter with this resolution which is only aiming at reinforcing political hostilities and lines of division in the Middle East region," chief Israeli delegate David Danieli told the chamber.
As Josh Keating points out, the real loser in all this is the IAEA. It is already an organization with serious international credibility issues. The last thing it needs is another mandate it is completely powerless to enforce.
The non-binding resolution represents the first time in 18 years that the IAEA has formally addressed Israel's nuclear program, although it isn't the first time it has tried. The reason for the success of the current initiative is that a preponderance of voting IAEA members currently come from the developing world.
Israel's response, as expected, was basically cute try guys--you aren't getting anywhere near our facilities:
"Israel will not cooperate in any matter with this resolution which is only aiming at reinforcing political hostilities and lines of division in the Middle East region," chief Israeli delegate David Danieli told the chamber.
As Josh Keating points out, the real loser in all this is the IAEA. It is already an organization with serious international credibility issues. The last thing it needs is another mandate it is completely powerless to enforce.
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