During Israel's 2006 invasion of Lebanon, the predominately Shiite suburbs of south Beirut were the focus intense bombardment by Israel's Air Force. None of these suburbs was hit harder than Dahiyah, which was home to Hezbollah's headquarters. Three years later, the area is thriving and surprisingly moderate. It's a remarkable testament to Hezbollah's ability to rebuild. 

For more check out Hamza Hendawi's recent article for AP.

This is one of the few articles on Afghanistan that I've actually found useful: 

It is right to be skeptical of the abstract slogans of U.S. counterinsurgency doctrine and the enthusiasms of those in the West who define success in Afghanistan through their own political-science terminology of  legitimacy, rights, and development. The Soviet Union defeated itself in Afghanistan by demanding absurdly, that the country conform to its preconceived theories of revolution and state development. As the editors of a review of the Soviet war composed by the Russian general staff put it, "Despite the Soviet Union's penetration and lengthy experience in Afghanistan, their intelligence was poor and hampered by the need to explain events within the Marxist-Leninist framework. Consequently, the Soviets never fully understood the mujahideen opposition nor why many of their policies failed to work in Afghanistan. 

For the full article, click here. 

William Kristol & Liz Cheney are off promoting their new PAC, simply named "Keep America Safe." Their website is eerily reminiscent of Obama's campaign website. So far, their efforts mostly involve repackaging Fox News segments (above) to criticize Obama's recent foreign policy moves. This level of politicization is poison for proper debate about America's interests in the world.
   
Analysis from Scott Horton of Harper's:

I’d reduce the real purpose of Keep America Safe to this: “Please don’t prosecute my father!” It’s increasingly clear that Dick Cheney was the author of the Bush-era torture policies, and my hunch is that when the Justice Department releases the OPR report on the torture memos, we’re going to find more evidence of the invisible hand of Dick Cheney behind the whole project. Any fair-minded federal prosecutor looking into the matter would shortly be preparing to do what Patrick Fitzgerald probably wishes now he had done: indict Dick Cheney.

Ideas were all-important for the individual whom they impelled into action; but the historian must attach equal importance to the circumstances that gave these ideas their chance. Revolutions are not made without ideas, but they are not made by the intellectuals. Steam is essential for driving a railway engine; but neither a locomotive nor a permanent way can be built out of steam.

- Christopher Hill

Some statistics to challenge stereotypes.  Less than a quarter of the world's Muslims live in the Middle East.

By percentage, Russia has by far the largest Muslim population in Europe. For all the ballyhoo about the Muslims taking over France, adherents of Islam only make up 6% of the French population.

The difference is, of course, that most Muslims in Russia have lived under Russian control for generations, while Muslims in Western Europe are mostly immigrants. Furthermore, these immigrants tend to flock towards major cities, making them much more publicly visible, and thus, more controversial.

The deal to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia that appeared so promising is in jeopardy. Two weeks ago Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan confidently proclaimed that the two sides would sign the protocols on October 10th. Apparently no one told the powerful Armenian diaspora about this.

In response, Tashnag Armenians from Lebanon to Los Angeles have taken to the streets in protest at what they see as betrayal by the ruling government in Yerevan. Inside the country, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation is staging an extended hunger-strike on the steps of the Foreign Ministry.

These protesters oppose the deal because, in their view, it gives Turkey an opportunity to dodge blame for the killings of thousands of Armenians by the Ottomans in 1915.  

All of the pressure seems to be taking a toll on the Armenian government. Whereas months ago, officials in Yerevan seemed optimistic, now they are cautioning that while they want to sign the resolution, it may not happen anytime soon.

In response Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has urged caution: "I am not giving any dates. Let's wait for a statement from the Swiss."

Should be an interesting weekend. 


Update: It wasn't pretty, but the two sides did sign. Details here. 

Saudi Arabia is back on the diplomatic offensive in the Middle East. This week King Abdullah made a rare trip outside the Kingdom to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. During the visit, the two leaders signed a series of agreements aimed at ameliorating relations between their two countries and made a joint statement calling for the formation of a unity government in Lebanon.

Syria, in partnership with Iran, has long backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, while the Saudis support the ruling March 14 coalition. Enmity between the two Lebanese parties is deep-seated but has been exacerbated in recent years by Saudi, Syrian and Iranian influence.

For the Saudis, the visit is less about actually solving the Lebanese political stalemate and more about countermanding Iranian influence in the region.

King Abdullah’s visit is the most recent in a series of diplomatic exchanges between the two countries, which include the appointment of a Saudi ambassador to Syria after an 18 month absence and a state visit by President al-Assad for the inauguration of the new Saudi research university.

Money quote: 

This vast region of irrigated deserts, mountains, and steppes between China, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and the Caspian Sea is easily dismissed as a peripheral zone, the “backyard” of one or another great power. In impoverished Afghanistan, traditionally considered the heart of Central Asia, U.S. forces are fighting a backward- looking and ignorant Taliban. The main news in America from the rest of Central Asia is that the Pentagon is looking for bases there from which to provision the Afghan campaign. In China, the region is seen chiefly as a semi- colonial source of oil, natural gas, gold, aluminum, copper, and uranium. The Russian narrative, meanwhile, dwells on Moscow’s geopolitical competition there with the West and, increasingly, China. By and large, most people abroad ignore the land of Ibn Sina and al-Biruni, dismissing it as an inconvenient territory to be crossed while getting somewhere else.

You can read the whole article here.

In honor of the War On Terror's 8th birthday, click below for a recent CRO report its staggering cost.

In my time traveling in the Middle East and Central Asia I've heard the Jews blamed for just about everything. I used to joke with Jon that we should start a blog called "Jew Done It" to preserve some of the more ludicrous claims. Since we already have a blog, I've limited my ambition to the addition of reoccurring column. So here it is, the first edition of Jew Done It PBOM style:

Antisemitism is rarely bound by the twin tyrannies of logic and common sense. For a comically ridiculous example see the recent coup in Honduras. Despite the fact that there are fewer than 100 Jewish families in the country, supporters of ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya are blaming the Jews for the removal of their leader.

According to David Romero, news director of the pro-Zelaya Radio Globo, the Jews are "people that do damage in this country." If that wasn't enough Romero added, "After what I have learned, I ask myself why, why didn't we let Hitler carry out his historic mission?"

Zelaya himself has only perpetuate the rumors about Jewish meddling by telling the Miami Herald that he is being tortured by Israeli mercenaries with high-frequency radiations (sic).

The sooner this bullshit scapegoating stops, the sooner nations like Honduras will actually be able to fix their domestic problems, although I have little hope that this will happen soon. Until such a time, check back here for the latest in Jew blame. 

-Evan