Here we go again. The US House Foreign Affairs Committee is set to vote Thursday on a resolution recognizing the 1915 Ottoman massacres of Armenians as genocide. 

A similar vote passed in 2007, but never came to a vote in the House of Representatives. Both the House of Representative and the Senate are composed of committees. Legislation must first pass relevant committees before being brought to a vote by the full House or Senate. For it to be brought to a full vote in the House, the Speaker of the House must schedule the vote. In the past, various presidential administrations coaxed the Speaker of the House into not bringing the bill up for a House-wide vote. This is what Bush did in 2007.

For any bill to become law, a similar process must occur in the Senate, and if bills pass both houses they must be reconciled to have the same language, voted on again, and then be sent to the President for signature. The President can veto the bill, sign it, or let it become law without his signature.

Obama campaigned that he would recognize the Armenian genocide. Ronald Reagan also publicly recognized the Armenian genocide without supporting legislation to recognize it. On April 15 last year (the day Armenians commemorate the killings), Obama used the Armenian words for Armenian genocide, without saying it in English. 

In 2007, some American Jewish groups, eager to support the Turkish-Israeli relationship, helped to block the resolution recognizing the killings as genocide. After the decline in the Turkish-Israeli relationship since the Gaza War in 2009, look for this to change.

Obama himself has taken a lot of heat from domestic critics for not rhetorically supporting human rights strongly enough. This could be an opportunity to put those critics to rest. On the other hand, the Obama Administration has put a much higher priority on the Turkish-American relationship than the Bush Administration did, and Obama will need the Turks’ cooperation if he plans to withdraw from Iraq in 2011. Look for Obama to cave in.

It will also be interesting to see how Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reacts to the vote in the Foreign Affairs Committee, which will almost certainly pass the resolution. Davutoglu has been radically revamping Turkish foreign policy to make it friendlier, but seems to have reached a roadblock on the Turkish-Armenian front. Expect him to make the argument that such a move by America would harm progress in talks to restart formal Turkish-Armenian relations.

The deal to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia that appeared so promising is in jeopardy. Two weeks ago Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan confidently proclaimed that the two sides would sign the protocols on October 10th. Apparently no one told the powerful Armenian diaspora about this.

In response, Tashnag Armenians from Lebanon to Los Angeles have taken to the streets in protest at what they see as betrayal by the ruling government in Yerevan. Inside the country, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation is staging an extended hunger-strike on the steps of the Foreign Ministry.

These protesters oppose the deal because, in their view, it gives Turkey an opportunity to dodge blame for the killings of thousands of Armenians by the Ottomans in 1915.  

All of the pressure seems to be taking a toll on the Armenian government. Whereas months ago, officials in Yerevan seemed optimistic, now they are cautioning that while they want to sign the resolution, it may not happen anytime soon.

In response Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has urged caution: "I am not giving any dates. Let's wait for a statement from the Swiss."

Should be an interesting weekend. 


Update: It wasn't pretty, but the two sides did sign. Details here.