During his visit to Azerbaijan last month, George Friedman (aka Stratfor dude) repeatedly admitted ignorance about the Caucasus generally and Azerbaijan specifically, so when I saw Stratfor had a new report on Azerbaijan, I was more than a bit skeptical. Surprisingly, the piece wasn’t that bad, which isn't to say it was actually good.

Friedman spends the most of the article playing in the geopolitical shallows and there are some pretty epic WTF moments. But between paraphrasing the Wikipedia page on Caucasus geography and claiming that the Caucasus is the region “most likely to involve the United States” in conflict he manages to make a couple important points:

First, regardless of what Hillary Clinton said during her meetings with President Ilham Aliyev and Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict is low on Washington’s list of priorities and will remain so for the foreseeable future: “Clinton’s call for negotiations and her offer of U.S. help are not particularly significant, especially since the call was for Washington to help under the guise of international, not bilateral, negotiations.”

Second, for the three countries in the South Caucasus geography is, was and forever will be a liability: “It [the region] is quiet now — but like the Balkans in 1990, quiet does not necessarily reassure any of the players. Therefore, seven players are involved in a very small space. Think of it as a cauldron framed by Russia, Iran and Turkey, occasionally stirred by Washington, for whom each of the other three major powers poses special challenges of varying degrees.”

The rest of the article is standard Stratfor fare. Friedman claims that America wants to build a close relationship with Azerbaijan so that it can “put U.S. hands on one of Turkey’s sources of oil,” completely ignores Azerbaijan’s essential role in the US’s war in Afghanistan, and manages to go the entire article without discussing Azerbaijan’s economic situation, Nabucco, or significant political issues like the absence of an American ambassador in Baku.  

At the end of the day, if you really want to learn about politics of the Caucasus, I’d recommend you cancel your Stratfor membership and read Thomas de Waal, Thomas Goltz, or Steve Levine instead. They've all been here more than once.

-Evan

P.S. In contrast to a lot of the weird stuff Stratfor publishes, Friedman's remarks at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy while he was here in Azerbaijan were excellent. Check out some of the highlights here. 

In what has to be one of the most bizarre instances of celebrity diplomacy in recent memory, Ashton Kutcher, UN goodwill ambassador and cougar-lover, is headed to Azerbaijan:

Kutcher's friend, and regional MTV director Matthew Goldstein told this to Vesti.Az.

"Kutcher, who is a UN goodwill ambassador will visit Baku in September. He will also take part in a festival organized due to the opening of MTV channel in Azerbaijan. Kutcher will also have a press-conference in Baku, devoted to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. He is well aware of the four UN resolutions which urge Armenia to withdraw its armed forces from the occupied territories. His spouse Demi Moore also expressed her wish to visit Azerbaijan. Kutcher plans to explain Americans the difference between Azerbaijan and Armenia, since most Americans dont know that difference", said Goldstein.

So far it is unknown, whether Kutcher will also visit the occupied territories of Azerbaijan.

I can't wait to read Ashton's tweets about the predominance of  territorial integrity over self determination. Also I'm not sure if Ashton knows it yet but this is going to make for some awkward moments with Kim Kardashian.

Hat tip to Sarah for the link

Evan and I don't usually like doing personal posts-- our lives really aren't interesting enough to be followed 24/7, and I've always felt that blogging about yourself becomes egotistical pretty fast.

However, over the past few weeks our lives were actually interesting--and we were actually in the same place for once--so we've uploaded a few videos from our trip. This one is in the mountains of Azerbaijan, going from the village of Xınalıq down to the town of Quba, en route to Baku. The vehicle is a Soviet UAZ-469. Enjoy! (dramamine recommended)

Ladies and Gentlemen, the legend of Xınalıq, Nevruz Bey:

Mountain Creek:

If you ever ask an Azeri official how this small, resource rich country intends to make money after its oil and natural gas reserves dry up, the answer, almost to a man, is tourism. Yes, tourism.

As anyone who has ever flown into Heydar Aliyev International Airport knows, the tourism sector in Azerbaijan is, shall we say, underdeveloped. A tourist visa costs an exorbitant $131 (assuming you are a US citizen) and once you exit the airport, the situation isn't much better. There are very few traditional tourist sites, the country is extremely expensive, and most of the transportation infrastructure hails from the Brezhnev era.

In short there is a good reason that most of the "tourists" one sees in Baku are either businessmen trying to kill time before their next meeting or Germans waiting for the ferry to Turkmenistan.

Don't get me wrong, I love living in Azerbaijan. There are many amazing things to do and see here and Azeris are beyond hospitable. But the reality is that when an upper-middle class family of four decides where to spend their vacation dollar, very few will choose Azerbaijan. Certainly not enough to replace the billions of dollars revenue of generated by the sale of Azeri oil and natural gas.

Read more after the jump ---->