The Future of Kyrgyzstan 08/18/2010
Doesn't look good, according to Anna Matveeva:
The long-term prospects are worrying, as the Uzbek minority realises that it is largely on its own with its problems. A renewal of the summer's clashes is at present is unlikely, as the community is shocked and scared. There are three possible templates for the future: that of Sri Lanka, where a powerful guerrilla organisation emerged after ethnic riots; that of Chechnya, where a nascent nationalist movement fell prey to Islamist networks; and that of Uzbekistan, which reacted to Andijan with overwhelming repression. None of these is very inspiring.
To resolve the situation, the ruling elite have to show a determined commitment to the ideology of multi-ethnic society instead of a "return to democracy" based on the titular group supremacy. Policy on interethnic relations and minority issues needs to be articulated, and a mechanism of reconciliation should be established to support it.
The long-term prospects are worrying, as the Uzbek minority realises that it is largely on its own with its problems. A renewal of the summer's clashes is at present is unlikely, as the community is shocked and scared. There are three possible templates for the future: that of Sri Lanka, where a powerful guerrilla organisation emerged after ethnic riots; that of Chechnya, where a nascent nationalist movement fell prey to Islamist networks; and that of Uzbekistan, which reacted to Andijan with overwhelming repression. None of these is very inspiring.
To resolve the situation, the ruling elite have to show a determined commitment to the ideology of multi-ethnic society instead of a "return to democracy" based on the titular group supremacy. Policy on interethnic relations and minority issues needs to be articulated, and a mechanism of reconciliation should be established to support it.
Add Comment
The Tajik-Afghan border
A friend of the blog recently requested some sources on drug trafficking in Central Asia so here’s what I’ve got. Feel free to tack on any additional info in the comment section.
1. Regional Background:
Rediscovering Central Asia, S. Frederick Starr. Essential cultural and historical background.
This vast region of irrigated deserts, mountains, and steppes between China, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and the Caspian Sea is easily dismissed as a peripheral zone, the “backyard” of one or another great power. [...] By and large, most people abroad ignore the land of Ibn Sina and al-Biruni, dismissing it as an inconvenient territory to be crossed while getting somewhere else.
Central Asia Human Development Report (2005), UNDP. At 268 pages, this monster will tell you most everything you need to know about economic and social conditions in Central Asia:
Few parts of the world are as interdependent as the five Central Asian landlocked countries. The five former Soviet republics—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—are more distant from the nearest seaports than any other countries in the world. Especially for the smaller states, land transit routes represent irreplaceable economic lifelines. The Central Asian republics are also bound together by their water and energy endowments, with upstream countries holding some of the world’s largest freshwater reserves, and downstream countries containing important fossil fuel resources. While the latter depend upon their upstream neighbours for irrigating water-intensive cotton production, the upstream countries depend equally on their downstream neighbours for their energy needs.
Drug Trafficking on the Great Silk Road: The Security Environment in Central Asia (1999), Martha Brill Olcott and Natalia Udalova. An interesting pre-9/11 report (AKA back when we thought all drugs came from South and Central America) on how drug trafficking developed in the region.
The drug problem is still a relatively new one for the Central Asian region. Until the last years of communist rule, drug use in the Soviet Union was nowhere near as wide-spread as it was in the West. In fact, official propaganda portrayed addiction to drugs as a “capitalist disease” that could not spread to the socialist world. All data concerning drug trade and the number of drug addicts was classified and considered to be a state secret, making it almost impossible to estimate the number of drug addicts in the USSR. The beginning of the war in Afghanistan, however, changed the status quo, since many of the Soviet soldiers who fought in Afghanistan got addicted to opiates. They also established business relations with the Afghan drug producers, some of whom continue to serve as a source of the present expanded drug trade.
Read more after the jump ---->
1. Regional Background:
Rediscovering Central Asia, S. Frederick Starr. Essential cultural and historical background.
This vast region of irrigated deserts, mountains, and steppes between China, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and the Caspian Sea is easily dismissed as a peripheral zone, the “backyard” of one or another great power. [...] By and large, most people abroad ignore the land of Ibn Sina and al-Biruni, dismissing it as an inconvenient territory to be crossed while getting somewhere else.
Central Asia Human Development Report (2005), UNDP. At 268 pages, this monster will tell you most everything you need to know about economic and social conditions in Central Asia:
Few parts of the world are as interdependent as the five Central Asian landlocked countries. The five former Soviet republics—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—are more distant from the nearest seaports than any other countries in the world. Especially for the smaller states, land transit routes represent irreplaceable economic lifelines. The Central Asian republics are also bound together by their water and energy endowments, with upstream countries holding some of the world’s largest freshwater reserves, and downstream countries containing important fossil fuel resources. While the latter depend upon their upstream neighbours for irrigating water-intensive cotton production, the upstream countries depend equally on their downstream neighbours for their energy needs.
Drug Trafficking on the Great Silk Road: The Security Environment in Central Asia (1999), Martha Brill Olcott and Natalia Udalova. An interesting pre-9/11 report (AKA back when we thought all drugs came from South and Central America) on how drug trafficking developed in the region.
The drug problem is still a relatively new one for the Central Asian region. Until the last years of communist rule, drug use in the Soviet Union was nowhere near as wide-spread as it was in the West. In fact, official propaganda portrayed addiction to drugs as a “capitalist disease” that could not spread to the socialist world. All data concerning drug trade and the number of drug addicts was classified and considered to be a state secret, making it almost impossible to estimate the number of drug addicts in the USSR. The beginning of the war in Afghanistan, however, changed the status quo, since many of the Soviet soldiers who fought in Afghanistan got addicted to opiates. They also established business relations with the Afghan drug producers, some of whom continue to serve as a source of the present expanded drug trade.
Read more after the jump ---->
What Not to Read: Stratfor on Central Asia 06/16/2010
Muhammad Alim Khan, Emir of Bukhara (modern-day Uzbekistan), one of the leaders of the last Central Asian revolt against Russia.
Stratfor often provides insightful commentary. That’s why I read their free reports. But they also have a whacky side, and like to make ludicrous, unfounded assertions (see here for more). Their piece on Kyrgyzstan falls into the latter category. They combine false assertions with loony theories, throw in some Russian revanchism and Uzbek irredentism, and voila! We have on our hands a potential Russo-Uzbek war.
Stratfor’s Peter Zeihan begins with a bunch of 19th century nonsense about Russia needing geographical barriers to protect against invasion. That makes seizing control of the Carpathian Mountains (!!!) central to Russian security.
In case you haven’t crawled out of your WWII bunker yet, it’s 2010. Nobody on the European continent aside from Russia (and America if you count bases in Germany) even has a military worth writing about. The mountains that Russia actually pays attention to are known as the Caucasus Mountains. Far from being a help against external invaders (Oh no! The Georgians are coming!), they serve as a refuge for Chechen terrorists. Yet all this jibber jabber about mountains makes Kyrgyzstan sound worthwhile to fight for (Kyrgyzstan is one of the most mountainous countries in the world), so Zeihan includes it.
Next comes the straw man.
Russia has reasserted itself as a dominant power in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Ukraine.
Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, I get it. In Azerbaijan, Russia is not really dominant, but at least it is a place where countries compete for influence. But Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan? Who had pushed the Kremlin out as the dominant power in these countries, before the Russian bear roared back? Nobody. But all of this talk sets the stage nicely for some Russian aggression.
Click "Read More" to Continue--------->
Stratfor’s Peter Zeihan begins with a bunch of 19th century nonsense about Russia needing geographical barriers to protect against invasion. That makes seizing control of the Carpathian Mountains (!!!) central to Russian security.
In case you haven’t crawled out of your WWII bunker yet, it’s 2010. Nobody on the European continent aside from Russia (and America if you count bases in Germany) even has a military worth writing about. The mountains that Russia actually pays attention to are known as the Caucasus Mountains. Far from being a help against external invaders (Oh no! The Georgians are coming!), they serve as a refuge for Chechen terrorists. Yet all this jibber jabber about mountains makes Kyrgyzstan sound worthwhile to fight for (Kyrgyzstan is one of the most mountainous countries in the world), so Zeihan includes it.
Next comes the straw man.
Russia has reasserted itself as a dominant power in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Ukraine.
Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, I get it. In Azerbaijan, Russia is not really dominant, but at least it is a place where countries compete for influence. But Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan? Who had pushed the Kremlin out as the dominant power in these countries, before the Russian bear roared back? Nobody. But all of this talk sets the stage nicely for some Russian aggression.
Click "Read More" to Continue--------->
Trouble in Kyrgyzstan 06/11/2010
Never a good omen
Update: Mobs of armed men torched Uzbek neighborhoods on Friday, leaving at least 49 people dead and 650 wounded. Thousands of ethnic Uzbeks have fled west towards the border. Riots are now taking place in Osh and the country's capital, Bishkek.
The interim government in Kyrgyzstan declared a state of emergency after twenty-three people were killed yesterday in riots in the city of Osh. Several sources have speculated that the violence in this volatile southern region may have involved clashes with ethnic Uzbeks. Even if there was not an ethnic overtone to the conflict, it is still an ominous sign for the stability of the fragile administration in Bishkek and the Central Asian region as a whole.
Much of the southern portion of Kyrgyzstan is divided between large Uzbek and Kyrgyz communities. Historically, these groups have battled each other over agriculturally viable land and political power. In June 1990, this turmoil sparked a riot in Osh in which over 300 people died and thousands were injured before the Red Army stepped into stop the bloodshed.
Since protestors deposed President Bakiyev in April, the central government’s control in the region has remained tenuous at best. The Uzbek community has so far refused to take sides in the dispute, but it fears that the growing authority vacuum could trigger violent antagonism. Unless the Otunbayeva administration can restore calm in this chaotic region, political unrest could become ethnically charged. It is up to the central government to decisively quell the violence before it takes on a life of its own. No one wants to see ethnic separatism tear the 'stans apart.
The Chinese Are Coming 06/10/2010
The route of the new pipeline to China
China’s move into Central Asia continued on Wednesday. At a bilateral summit in Tashkent, Uzbek President Karimov declared that “Uzbekistan strongly and unchangingly supports the well-balanced course of the Chinese leadership regarding...Taiwan and Tibet.” He later added that the two states would cooperate in the battle against the “three evils [of] terrorism, extremism, and separatism.”
Despite these pronouncements of unity and friendship, the subtext of the meeting was purely economic. The Chinese government has been diligently courting Uzbekistan as part of its effort secure access to resources for its energy-starved industries. In April 2007, for example, the two countries signed a deal to build a massive gas pipeline, leading from Turkmenistan to western China.
One remaining question is how Russia will react to these developments. Most of Central Asia’s oil and gas has traditionally flowed north towards Moscow. The Kremlin has also grown accustomed to exercising cultural and geopolitical dominance across the region. If China attempts to supplant Russia in its role of regional hegemon, it could trigger a dangerous competition over resources and influence.
Of course, a new Sino-Russian rivalry is not a preordained outcome. Russia is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the two sides have signed several pipeline deals of their own. Still, the Kremlin has never been very keen on sharing its ‘backyard’ with outsiders (just ask NATO). As the Chinese expand ever westward, they should be on the lookout for a snarling bear.
-Joe
Despite these pronouncements of unity and friendship, the subtext of the meeting was purely economic. The Chinese government has been diligently courting Uzbekistan as part of its effort secure access to resources for its energy-starved industries. In April 2007, for example, the two countries signed a deal to build a massive gas pipeline, leading from Turkmenistan to western China.
One remaining question is how Russia will react to these developments. Most of Central Asia’s oil and gas has traditionally flowed north towards Moscow. The Kremlin has also grown accustomed to exercising cultural and geopolitical dominance across the region. If China attempts to supplant Russia in its role of regional hegemon, it could trigger a dangerous competition over resources and influence.
Of course, a new Sino-Russian rivalry is not a preordained outcome. Russia is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the two sides have signed several pipeline deals of their own. Still, the Kremlin has never been very keen on sharing its ‘backyard’ with outsiders (just ask NATO). As the Chinese expand ever westward, they should be on the lookout for a snarling bear.
-Joe
Turkmenistan - Photograph by Gerard Degeorge/CORBIS
Money quote:
This vast region of irrigated deserts, mountains, and steppes between China, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and the Caspian Sea is easily dismissed as a peripheral zone, the “backyard” of one or another great power. In impoverished Afghanistan, traditionally considered the heart of Central Asia, U.S. forces are fighting a backward- looking and ignorant Taliban. The main news in America from the rest of Central Asia is that the Pentagon is looking for bases there from which to provision the Afghan campaign. In China, the region is seen chiefly as a semi- colonial source of oil, natural gas, gold, aluminum, copper, and uranium. The Russian narrative, meanwhile, dwells on Moscow’s geopolitical competition there with the West and, increasingly, China. By and large, most people abroad ignore the land of Ibn Sina and al-Biruni, dismissing it as an inconvenient territory to be crossed while getting somewhere else.
You can read the whole article here.
This vast region of irrigated deserts, mountains, and steppes between China, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and the Caspian Sea is easily dismissed as a peripheral zone, the “backyard” of one or another great power. In impoverished Afghanistan, traditionally considered the heart of Central Asia, U.S. forces are fighting a backward- looking and ignorant Taliban. The main news in America from the rest of Central Asia is that the Pentagon is looking for bases there from which to provision the Afghan campaign. In China, the region is seen chiefly as a semi- colonial source of oil, natural gas, gold, aluminum, copper, and uranium. The Russian narrative, meanwhile, dwells on Moscow’s geopolitical competition there with the West and, increasingly, China. By and large, most people abroad ignore the land of Ibn Sina and al-Biruni, dismissing it as an inconvenient territory to be crossed while getting somewhere else.
You can read the whole article here.
Loading
