The Death of the Iranian Nuclear Timeline 03/20/2011
As we've discussed before, the use of precise timelines to describe Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon is unhelpful and misleading. The reality is that Iran's technical capacity has less to do with if or when it decides to build an actual bomb than its political calculus. To move from its current program, which is predicated on nuclear ambiguity, to a dedicated nuclear weapons program would require a difficult political decision. Considering Iran's multifaceted internal debate and the likely consequences of such a move, it's unlikely that the country's leadership would or even could make that decision.
DNI Clapper did a good job of discussing Iran's nuclear progress without help of an exact timeline during his recent testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on the 2011 NIE:
Iran’s technical advancement, particularly in uranium enrichment, strengthens our assessment that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, making the central issue its political will to do so. These advancements contribute to our judgment that Iran is technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon in the next few years, if it chooses to do so.
[...]
We continue to judge Iran’s nuclear decisionmaking is guided by a cost-benefit approach, which offers the international community opportunities to influence Tehran. Iranian leaders undoubtedly consider Iran’s security, prestige and influence, as well as the international political and security environment, when making decisions about its nuclear program.
Read the full testimony here. Let's hope timelines are gone for good.
DNI Clapper did a good job of discussing Iran's nuclear progress without help of an exact timeline during his recent testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on the 2011 NIE:
Iran’s technical advancement, particularly in uranium enrichment, strengthens our assessment that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, making the central issue its political will to do so. These advancements contribute to our judgment that Iran is technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon in the next few years, if it chooses to do so.
[...]
We continue to judge Iran’s nuclear decisionmaking is guided by a cost-benefit approach, which offers the international community opportunities to influence Tehran. Iranian leaders undoubtedly consider Iran’s security, prestige and influence, as well as the international political and security environment, when making decisions about its nuclear program.
Read the full testimony here. Let's hope timelines are gone for good.
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Mubarak Channels the Shah? 01/29/2011
Best Futsal Match Ever 10/27/2010
Morales and Ahmadinejad play futsal in Tehran. Sports diplomacy at its best.
The Iran Primer 10/24/2010
Sometime last year, the United States Institute of Peace kidnapped over 50 Iran experts including Karim Sadjadpour, Juan Cole, Haleh Esfandiari and Abbas Milani and held them in a basement in Bethesda, Maryland until they each wrote five pages on an event or person in modern Iranian history.
Well, that's probably not how it went down, but somehow they managed to get all of those luminaries together to write an incredibly comprehensive guide to Iranian politics and U.S.-Iranian relations. Check it out here.
Well, that's probably not how it went down, but somehow they managed to get all of those luminaries together to write an incredibly comprehensive guide to Iranian politics and U.S.-Iranian relations. Check it out here.
The 34th Miner? 10/15/2010
The ever entertaining Suq Al Mal with one of the best pieces of satire on the Middle East I've read in a while:
"Today the World witnessed the remarkable rescue of 33 brave men trapped roughly 700 meters below the ground in the San Jose mine in Chile since August. Bienvenidos, hombres!
After the last miner had been lifted to safety, crowds were amazed at the emergence of the President of Iran from the rescue tunnel as shown in the above exclusive Al Ahram photograph.
As with events of this sort, amid the joy there was some profound sorrow. An Egyptian citizen, one Mr. Mohammed H. Mubarak, who was scheduled to be the first to come to the surface, has been left behind alone in the mine as the rescue shaft was too narrow to accommodate him. Apparently, the physical description contained in his official Egyptian Government biography - which was used in designing the tunnel - understated his weight and girth. Informed sources have confirmed that he has been provided a chisel and hammer and is slowly working his way to the surface. Suq Al Mal has been told by its sources in Egypt in yet another Suq Al Mal exclusive that Al Ahram expects to publish a picture tomorrow showing him emerging first from the tunnel."
"Today the World witnessed the remarkable rescue of 33 brave men trapped roughly 700 meters below the ground in the San Jose mine in Chile since August. Bienvenidos, hombres!
After the last miner had been lifted to safety, crowds were amazed at the emergence of the President of Iran from the rescue tunnel as shown in the above exclusive Al Ahram photograph.
As with events of this sort, amid the joy there was some profound sorrow. An Egyptian citizen, one Mr. Mohammed H. Mubarak, who was scheduled to be the first to come to the surface, has been left behind alone in the mine as the rescue shaft was too narrow to accommodate him. Apparently, the physical description contained in his official Egyptian Government biography - which was used in designing the tunnel - understated his weight and girth. Informed sources have confirmed that he has been provided a chisel and hammer and is slowly working his way to the surface. Suq Al Mal has been told by its sources in Egypt in yet another Suq Al Mal exclusive that Al Ahram expects to publish a picture tomorrow showing him emerging first from the tunnel."
The Telegraph (Britain's leading conservative daily) claims that the Iranian government has agreed to make a $25 million donation to Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party, the ruling party in Turkey. The donation is to be made through the IHH, the same group that brought us the Mavi Marmara and the Gaza Flotilla.
Both Turkey and Iran deny these claims, and according to Zaman (Turkey's leading Islamist daily) Erdogan is preparing a court case against the Telegraph.
Erdogan is used to bullying around the press in Turkey, but this lawsuit is obviously going nowhere, and only makes Erdogan look worse internationally. The best reason to believe that the allegations are true is because the Telegraph is a professional newspaper with good sources -- for instance, it broke the huge British MP expenses scandal last year. The reason to be skeptical is that accepting money directly from Iran shows very poor political judgment on Erdogan's part--it's not going to win him votes, and there is no indication that his party needs the money. The best explanation seems to be that Iran thought that nobody would notice if it just funded IHH. Keep posted for updates.
Both Turkey and Iran deny these claims, and according to Zaman (Turkey's leading Islamist daily) Erdogan is preparing a court case against the Telegraph.
Erdogan is used to bullying around the press in Turkey, but this lawsuit is obviously going nowhere, and only makes Erdogan look worse internationally. The best reason to believe that the allegations are true is because the Telegraph is a professional newspaper with good sources -- for instance, it broke the huge British MP expenses scandal last year. The reason to be skeptical is that accepting money directly from Iran shows very poor political judgment on Erdogan's part--it's not going to win him votes, and there is no indication that his party needs the money. The best explanation seems to be that Iran thought that nobody would notice if it just funded IHH. Keep posted for updates.
Goldberg Watches a Dolphin Show with Fidel
When it rains, it pours, and Jeffrey Goldberg, fresh off his Israel-Iran cover article that is perhaps the most talked about foreign affairs article of the year, just wrapped up an exclusive interview with el comandante. Interestingly, Castro took the opportunity to declare his support for Israel's right to exist, and to tell Ahmadinejad to stop his anti-Jewish rants. Take it away, el jefe:
"I remember when I was a boy - a long time ago - when I was five or six years old and I lived in the countryside," he said, "and I remember Good Friday. What was the atmosphere a child breathed? `Be quiet, God is dead.' God died every year between Thursday and Saturday of Holy Week, and it made a profound impression on everyone. What happened? They would say, `The Jews killed God.' They blamed the Jews for killing God! Do you realize this?"
He went on, "Well, I didn't know what a Jew was. I knew of a bird that was a called a 'Jew,' and so for me the Jews were those birds. These birds had big noses. I don't even know why they were called that. That's what I remember. This is how ignorant the entire population was."
He said the Iranian government should understand the consequences of theological anti-Semitism. "This went on for maybe two thousand years," he said. "I don't think anyone has been slandered more than the Jews. I would say much more than the Muslims. They have been slandered much more than the Muslims because they are blamed and slandered for everything. No one blames the Muslims for anything."
The Iranian government should understand that the Jews "were expelled from their land, persecuted and mistreated all over the world, as the ones who killed God. In my judgment here's what happened to them: Reverse selection. What's reverse selection? Over 2,000 years they were subjected to terrible persecution and then to the pogroms. One might have assumed that they would have disappeared; I think their culture and religion kept them together as a nation." He continued: "The Jews have lived an existence that is much harder than ours. There is nothing that compares to the Holocaust." I asked him if he would tell Ahmadinejad what he was telling me. "I am saying this so you can communicate it," he answered.
"I remember when I was a boy - a long time ago - when I was five or six years old and I lived in the countryside," he said, "and I remember Good Friday. What was the atmosphere a child breathed? `Be quiet, God is dead.' God died every year between Thursday and Saturday of Holy Week, and it made a profound impression on everyone. What happened? They would say, `The Jews killed God.' They blamed the Jews for killing God! Do you realize this?"
He went on, "Well, I didn't know what a Jew was. I knew of a bird that was a called a 'Jew,' and so for me the Jews were those birds. These birds had big noses. I don't even know why they were called that. That's what I remember. This is how ignorant the entire population was."
He said the Iranian government should understand the consequences of theological anti-Semitism. "This went on for maybe two thousand years," he said. "I don't think anyone has been slandered more than the Jews. I would say much more than the Muslims. They have been slandered much more than the Muslims because they are blamed and slandered for everything. No one blames the Muslims for anything."
The Iranian government should understand that the Jews "were expelled from their land, persecuted and mistreated all over the world, as the ones who killed God. In my judgment here's what happened to them: Reverse selection. What's reverse selection? Over 2,000 years they were subjected to terrible persecution and then to the pogroms. One might have assumed that they would have disappeared; I think their culture and religion kept them together as a nation." He continued: "The Jews have lived an existence that is much harder than ours. There is nothing that compares to the Holocaust." I asked him if he would tell Ahmadinejad what he was telling me. "I am saying this so you can communicate it," he answered.
Apparently, they both like young boys:
For centuries, Afghan men have taken boys, roughly 9 to 15 years old, as lovers. Some research suggests that half the Pashtun tribal members in Kandahar and other southern towns are bacha baz, the term for an older man with a boy lover. Literally it means "boy player." The men like to boast about it…
[D]ance parties are a popular, often weekly, pastime. Young boys dress up as girls, wearing makeup and bells on their feet, and dance for a dozen or more leering middle-aged men who throw money at them and then take them home…
Sociologists and anthropologists say the problem results from perverse interpretation of Islamic law. Women are simply unapproachable. Afghan men cannot talk to an unrelated woman until after proposing marriage. Before then, they can't even look at a woman, except perhaps her feet. Otherwise she is covered, head to ankle.
"How can you fall in love if you can't see her face," 29-year-old Mohammed Daud told reporters. "We can see the boys, so we can tell which are beautiful."
Anyone who has ever read/watched the Kite Runner had some inkling of this. And it’s not just Afghanistan either-- Iranian prison guards (members of the Revolutionary Guard) regularly rape inmates as a form of punishment. How could fundamentalist Muslims, who are typically raging homophobes, allow this? As one Azeri once explained to Evan, it is only homosexual “if you are the one receiving.” What a bunch of creeps.
For centuries, Afghan men have taken boys, roughly 9 to 15 years old, as lovers. Some research suggests that half the Pashtun tribal members in Kandahar and other southern towns are bacha baz, the term for an older man with a boy lover. Literally it means "boy player." The men like to boast about it…
[D]ance parties are a popular, often weekly, pastime. Young boys dress up as girls, wearing makeup and bells on their feet, and dance for a dozen or more leering middle-aged men who throw money at them and then take them home…
Sociologists and anthropologists say the problem results from perverse interpretation of Islamic law. Women are simply unapproachable. Afghan men cannot talk to an unrelated woman until after proposing marriage. Before then, they can't even look at a woman, except perhaps her feet. Otherwise she is covered, head to ankle.
"How can you fall in love if you can't see her face," 29-year-old Mohammed Daud told reporters. "We can see the boys, so we can tell which are beautiful."
Anyone who has ever read/watched the Kite Runner had some inkling of this. And it’s not just Afghanistan either-- Iranian prison guards (members of the Revolutionary Guard) regularly rape inmates as a form of punishment. How could fundamentalist Muslims, who are typically raging homophobes, allow this? As one Azeri once explained to Evan, it is only homosexual “if you are the one receiving.” What a bunch of creeps.
Here's to fraternity:
A United States Navy ship rescued eight Iranian fishermen from a burning boat in the Arabian Sea; gave them food, water and fresh clothing; and delivered them to an Iranian naval vessel two days later, the Navy reported Friday.
A United States Navy ship rescued eight Iranian fishermen from a burning boat in the Arabian Sea; gave them food, water and fresh clothing; and delivered them to an Iranian naval vessel two days later, the Navy reported Friday.
Is An Iranian Nuke Really a Big Threat? 08/17/2010
Greg Scoblete thinks not:
...[T]he real threat from Iran [to America] is not nuclear bombs going off in Western cities, the wiping of Israel off the map or anything close to that. It's the possible threat Iran poses to America's "top country" status [i.e. hegemony--top country is Elliot Abrams's odd phrasing] in the Middle East.
Wars have frequently been waged for balance-of-power concerns, but in this case, how significant would the balance of power shift out of America's favor? Pakistan has nuclear weapons and is not the top country on the subcontinent - it can barely curtail its own home grown insurgency and it was threatened/cajoled by the U.S. to allow us to bomb portions of the country almost at will. North Korea has nuclear weapons and you'd be laughed out of a room if you suggested they had anything resembling "hegemony" in Asia.
Iran with a crude nuclear weapon would still be poor, weak and surrounded by unfriendly states. The U.S., by contrast, would not be.
Many political theorists have noticed that the nuclear bomb ain't what it used to be. Of the regimes that have pursued nukes/gone nuclear in the past 30 years, none are respected. Most importantly, nukes are useless against internal unrest, which is Iran's greatest weakness. The big worry of course is that these nukes could get loose, which leads to the actual biggest threat to of America posed by an Iranian nuke: an increasingly meaningless non-proliferation regime. Shoring up this regime, if anyone still remembers, was at one point the main reason why the US invaded Iraq.
...[T]he real threat from Iran [to America] is not nuclear bombs going off in Western cities, the wiping of Israel off the map or anything close to that. It's the possible threat Iran poses to America's "top country" status [i.e. hegemony--top country is Elliot Abrams's odd phrasing] in the Middle East.
Wars have frequently been waged for balance-of-power concerns, but in this case, how significant would the balance of power shift out of America's favor? Pakistan has nuclear weapons and is not the top country on the subcontinent - it can barely curtail its own home grown insurgency and it was threatened/cajoled by the U.S. to allow us to bomb portions of the country almost at will. North Korea has nuclear weapons and you'd be laughed out of a room if you suggested they had anything resembling "hegemony" in Asia.
Iran with a crude nuclear weapon would still be poor, weak and surrounded by unfriendly states. The U.S., by contrast, would not be.
Many political theorists have noticed that the nuclear bomb ain't what it used to be. Of the regimes that have pursued nukes/gone nuclear in the past 30 years, none are respected. Most importantly, nukes are useless against internal unrest, which is Iran's greatest weakness. The big worry of course is that these nukes could get loose, which leads to the actual biggest threat to of America posed by an Iranian nuke: an increasingly meaningless non-proliferation regime. Shoring up this regime, if anyone still remembers, was at one point the main reason why the US invaded Iraq.
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