Meet the Blues 03/05/2010
There is a new party in Kurdish politics and it's likely that it will have a significant effect on the ongoing Iraqi election. The Goran or "change" party was founded by Nawshirwan Mustafa specifically to challenge the two party PUK, KDP coalition that has dominated politics in the region since it became semi-autonomous after the first Gulf War.
Al Jazeera correspondent Zeina Khodr has an excellent profile on the newcomers here.
Money quote:
For the first time since 2003, Kurdish politicians will lack unity. But that doesn't seem to bother Goran's supporters. I went to one of their rallies and most of them will tell you that they welcome new parties because it brings about a real democracy.
But the question is how will this new reality affect the Kurds' political influence in Baghdad? After all, Sunday's national elections is not just about rival Kurdish parties vying for parliamentary seats, it is about Kurds wanting to expand their influence in Baghdad.
That's influence they need if they want to resolve pending Arab-Kurdish issues, like the fate of Kirkuk and other disputed territories, the oil law and the status of federalism.
It is still not clear if Nawshirwan Mustafa, the head of the Goran movement, will co-operate with his Kurdish rivals in the next Iraqi parliament. "I hope we do," is what he told me an hour before he addressed a crowd of his supporters.
For more background check out this article Jon wrote way back in July 2009.
Al Jazeera correspondent Zeina Khodr has an excellent profile on the newcomers here.
Money quote:
For the first time since 2003, Kurdish politicians will lack unity. But that doesn't seem to bother Goran's supporters. I went to one of their rallies and most of them will tell you that they welcome new parties because it brings about a real democracy.
But the question is how will this new reality affect the Kurds' political influence in Baghdad? After all, Sunday's national elections is not just about rival Kurdish parties vying for parliamentary seats, it is about Kurds wanting to expand their influence in Baghdad.
That's influence they need if they want to resolve pending Arab-Kurdish issues, like the fate of Kirkuk and other disputed territories, the oil law and the status of federalism.
It is still not clear if Nawshirwan Mustafa, the head of the Goran movement, will co-operate with his Kurdish rivals in the next Iraqi parliament. "I hope we do," is what he told me an hour before he addressed a crowd of his supporters.
For more background check out this article Jon wrote way back in July 2009.
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AKP's Ideal v. The Kurdish Reality 12/10/2009
Turkey's foreign policy since AKP solidified its domestic political position in 2007 has largely been defined by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's dogmatic interest in eliminating potential liabilities. One of his most notable successes has been the improvement of Turkey's relationship with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Northern Iraq.
On October 31st, less than three years after Turkish troops invaded Northern Iraq, Davutoglu stood shoulder to shoulder with KRG President Masoud Barzani at the inauguration of Turkey's new consulate in Erbil--an image very few Turkey observers thought they would ever see.
Undergirding the dramatic improvement of diplomatic ties has been the growth of economic relations between Turkey and the KRG. Turkey is by far the region's largest source of foreign direct investment and Turkish companies participate in virtually every sector of the Kurdish economy from construction to airport management. Additionally, natural gas from the Kurdish controlled regions of Iraq is an important part of Turkey's plan to become a regional energy hub.
Unfortunately, Davutoglu's masterpiece is in danger.
More after the jump ->
On October 31st, less than three years after Turkish troops invaded Northern Iraq, Davutoglu stood shoulder to shoulder with KRG President Masoud Barzani at the inauguration of Turkey's new consulate in Erbil--an image very few Turkey observers thought they would ever see.
Undergirding the dramatic improvement of diplomatic ties has been the growth of economic relations between Turkey and the KRG. Turkey is by far the region's largest source of foreign direct investment and Turkish companies participate in virtually every sector of the Kurdish economy from construction to airport management. Additionally, natural gas from the Kurdish controlled regions of Iraq is an important part of Turkey's plan to become a regional energy hub.
Unfortunately, Davutoglu's masterpiece is in danger.
More after the jump ->
Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan 11/13/2009
For anyone who follows Turkey, this image is shocking.
Developments between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan have been moving at unbelievable speed.
On Friday Oct 31, in the evening (Bush's preferred time slot for making news disappear), Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited Erbil and held a joint news conference with Massoud Barzani, the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government. Massoud Barzani is despised by mainstream Turks.
In 2007, the the military scuttled attempts by the AKP to setup a meeting between then Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul and then Kurdish PM Nechirvan Barzani.
But since that time, the AKP has scored successive blows against the military, both by appointing Gul president in 2007 and then by defeating attempts by the military to shut down the AKP in the summer of 2008.
The AKP government agreed to let the military launch an invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan in February 2008, perhaps in hindsight to placate the Turkish military and prepare for a rapprochement.
In conjunction with Davutoglu's visit, the AKP has been issuing amnesties for Kurdish PKK members without blood on their hands and relaxing restrictions on the Kurdish language. But by implicitly acknowledging Iraqi Kurdistan as a separate entity from the rest of Iraq, and agreeing to open a consulate in Erbil, the AKP is really entering untested waters. Many Turks deeply fear Kurdish separatist ambitions, and for them, the increasingly independent Kurds of Iraq are a nightmare.
For Turkey, this new Iraqi Kurdistan policy fits in well with Davutoglu's vision for Turkey as a new Middle Eastern power. For Turkish business, it means a windfall of profits in the underdeveloped but oil-rich Kurdistan. For Barzani, the Iraqi Arabs are the real foes, followed by the Persians and Syrians. Turkey is the least antipathetic of Iraqi Kurdistan's neighbors and has good ties with the West, which has traditionally been the Kurds' protector.
But the Turkish public is way behind Davutoglu and the Turkish business community on this one. After 80 years of denying that the Kurds even existed, and a brutal 20 year war against the PKK in Turkey's southeast, the AKP has to do more to encourage reconciliation in society. Otherwise, prepare for an ugly backlash.
On Friday Oct 31, in the evening (Bush's preferred time slot for making news disappear), Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited Erbil and held a joint news conference with Massoud Barzani, the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government. Massoud Barzani is despised by mainstream Turks.
In 2007, the the military scuttled attempts by the AKP to setup a meeting between then Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul and then Kurdish PM Nechirvan Barzani.
But since that time, the AKP has scored successive blows against the military, both by appointing Gul president in 2007 and then by defeating attempts by the military to shut down the AKP in the summer of 2008.
The AKP government agreed to let the military launch an invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan in February 2008, perhaps in hindsight to placate the Turkish military and prepare for a rapprochement.
In conjunction with Davutoglu's visit, the AKP has been issuing amnesties for Kurdish PKK members without blood on their hands and relaxing restrictions on the Kurdish language. But by implicitly acknowledging Iraqi Kurdistan as a separate entity from the rest of Iraq, and agreeing to open a consulate in Erbil, the AKP is really entering untested waters. Many Turks deeply fear Kurdish separatist ambitions, and for them, the increasingly independent Kurds of Iraq are a nightmare.
For Turkey, this new Iraqi Kurdistan policy fits in well with Davutoglu's vision for Turkey as a new Middle Eastern power. For Turkish business, it means a windfall of profits in the underdeveloped but oil-rich Kurdistan. For Barzani, the Iraqi Arabs are the real foes, followed by the Persians and Syrians. Turkey is the least antipathetic of Iraqi Kurdistan's neighbors and has good ties with the West, which has traditionally been the Kurds' protector.
But the Turkish public is way behind Davutoglu and the Turkish business community on this one. After 80 years of denying that the Kurds even existed, and a brutal 20 year war against the PKK in Turkey's southeast, the AKP has to do more to encourage reconciliation in society. Otherwise, prepare for an ugly backlash.
Kurdish Election Update 07/26/2009
It appears that Gorran- "change" in Kurdish, has won the province of Sulaimaniya, one of the three official provinces of Iraqi Kurdistan. The city of Sulaimaniya itself is widely considered by Kurds to be the most beautiful in the region- when I was there last year, Kurds bragged that it was the "Paris of Kurdistan." Sulaimaniya has been historically controlled by Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).
This guarantees that for the first time, Iraqi Kurdistan will have a true political opposition party in the Kurdistan Regional Parliament. This is a crucial step in invigorating Kurdistan's civil society, which is currently little more than a well-oiled patronage system controlled by leading Kurdish families.
It is important to note that Nawshiran Mustafa, the leader of Gorran, has strong historical ties to Jalal Talabani and the PUK. Gorran did not even bother to field a candidate against President Massoud Barzani, who is revered, along with his late father Mullah Mustafa Barzani, for leading generations of peshmerga. However, if Mustafa is able to claim a strong popular mandate, he may be able to resist selling himself off to the PUK or Barzani's KDP (Democratic Party of Kurdistan).
This guarantees that for the first time, Iraqi Kurdistan will have a true political opposition party in the Kurdistan Regional Parliament. This is a crucial step in invigorating Kurdistan's civil society, which is currently little more than a well-oiled patronage system controlled by leading Kurdish families.
It is important to note that Nawshiran Mustafa, the leader of Gorran, has strong historical ties to Jalal Talabani and the PUK. Gorran did not even bother to field a candidate against President Massoud Barzani, who is revered, along with his late father Mullah Mustafa Barzani, for leading generations of peshmerga. However, if Mustafa is able to claim a strong popular mandate, he may be able to resist selling himself off to the PUK or Barzani's KDP (Democratic Party of Kurdistan).
The Return of Kurdistan 07/11/2009
The process of forging a lasting political structure in Iraq will be hard, tedious, and disappointing. Nowhere is this reality more apparent than in the Kurdish regions of northern Iraq. Two weeks ago the Kurdish parliament approved a new constitution that formalizes the Kurd's longstanding geographical claims.
This move is the most recent in a series audacious attempts by the KRG to push the limits of Kurdish autonomy. For an excellent review of these developments, check out the International Crisis Group's report "Iraq and the Kurds: Trouble Along the Trigger Line."
In an ironic twist, Obama recently selected VP Joe Biden as his point man on Iraq. As many of you may remember during the presidential primary, Biden favored Peter Galbraith's dubious proposal that Iraq should be divided into three distinct regions. During his recent trip to Baghdad, Biden had to eat his words and criticize the Kurd's recent moves as "not helpful."
Thankfully there is a silver lining. Recent reports indicate that Turkish-Kurdish relations remain stable despite Erbil's territorial ambitions, largely because of common economic interests.
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