Top-10 Nuclear Quotes 12/31/2009
Its that time of year. That's right: top-10 time. Since I've had limited internet access over the holidays, my contribution to the list-making fury is secondhand. The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) has a great list of the top ten quotes about all things nuclear in '09. My favorites: 10. “Let’s sanction Iran, marry Pakistan, and bomb North Korea”- Joe Cirincione, on the Colbert Report, November 30 3. “Putin . . . showed me a map that his intelligence guys had prepared, and I told him he needed a new intelligence service.” - Secretary of Defense Robert Gates referring to Russia’s claim that Iran would not have a missile capable of reaching Western Europe by 2020, June 9 You can check the full list here. -Evan Diplomatic Calisthenics Watch 12/18/2009
 North Korea confirmed today that the Dear Leader Kim Jong Il received a personal letter from Barack Obama. The precise contents of the letter are unknown, but the goal is to bring the hermit kingdom back to the six-nation talks aimed at nuclear disarmament. I pity the diplomats who have to waste their time in farcical negotiations with the North Koreans.  Western governments' attempts to halt Iran's nuclear program are often rebuked rhetorically by the argument of "double standards." Without forcing Israel to denuclearize, the argument goes, the West has no right to deny Iran the right to an atom bomb. But on the international system differing standards exist everywhere--not all regimes are created equal. It's also not clear why Iran's denuclearization should be morally based on Israel's (opposed to Pakistan's, or even America's for that matter) denuclearization. Nevertheless, the important point is that the ideal world is one without nuclear weapons. In the real world, a minority of countries have nukes. As that number increases, the chances of nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands increases exponentially. The collective moral goal must be to stop this at all costs--lest we want to face a future of nuclear terrorism. Thus, a universal standard for nuclear weapons is similar to Hammurabi's famous eye-for-an-eye penal code. On an individual level, it is certainly the most equitable--nothing is more fair. But on a collective level everyone goes blind. Bushehr Delayed (Again) 11/16/2009
 Bushehr Reactor Plant Citing ever dubious "technical issues," Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko announced that work on the Bushehr nuclear plant in Southern Iran will not be completed this year as expected. This isn't the first time Russia has balked at finishing the Bushehr project. The date has been pushed back multiple times since the Russia officially agreed to begin work in 1995. Analyzing the timing of events like this always has the quality of a tea leaf reading. With that in mind, the most obvious explanation is that the Russians are actually committed to working with the West to impede Iran's nuclear progress and are using Bushehr (which isn't directly involved in Iran's nuclear weapons program) to generate leverage. Last year while interning for the Hudson Institute I wrote a piece on the history of contemporary Russian-Iranian relations. Anyone interested in 50 pages of background on Bushehr, Russian-Iranian arms trade, etc. can download the whole paper below. -Evan 
China Sent Enriched Uranium to Pakistan, Can it Now Teach Pakistan How to Read and Write? 11/13/2009
 According to corroborated reports from A.Q. Khan's personal accounts, China sent weapons-grade uranium to Pakistan in 1982. Horrified by India's test of a nuclear bomb in 1974, Mao Zedong and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (Benazir's father) met in 1976 to discuss cooperation in nuclear arms. A.Q. Khan, who gained access to European methods for nuclear enrichment while working at a Dutch centrifuge manufacturer, passed expertise to China, which had nuclear bombs but was frustrated by its slow pace of enrichment. Pakistan in return received warhead designs, 15 tons of uranium hexaflouride (feeder for centrifuges) and enough weapons-grade uranium for 2 atom bombs. As Khan boasted in a report for Pakistani intelligence: "The speed of our work and our achievements surprised our worst enemies and adversaries and the West stood helplessly by to see a Third World nation, unable even to produce bicycle chains or sewing needles, mastering the most advanced nuclear technology in the shortest possible span of time..." Yes, by spying on the Dutch and capitalizing on Chinese fears of India. But what does it mean to be a country that can produce nuclear weapons, but can't teach half of its population how to read and write? Would it not be better to surprise the world by creating a modern, stable society? Despite Pakistan's enormous pride for its nuclear capability, I don't think that many Third World countries envy Pakistan today. 2007 NIE Redux 11/08/2009
 Thomas Fingar When November 2007 National Intelligence Estimate came out, it completely overturned the standing logic on Iran's nuclear program by suggesting that the Iranians had actually stopped work on a nuclear device in 2003. At the time, most of the media were too distracted with this revelation to dig into the politics behind NIE's curious release. Two years later Thomas Fingar, who was the Chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the time, is talking about who ordered the NIE's findings leaked and why: "This example is drawn from the highly contentious 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities. It became contentious, in part, because the White House instructed the Intelligence Community to release an unclassified version of the report’s key judgments but declined to take responsibility for ordering its release." See the full speech here and Joshua Pollack's analysis here. Erdogan Speaks to the WSJ 10/05/2009
 Watch the interview here- on Iran, Israel, and Armenia. Depressingly, Erdogan still talks about Iran as if its program is peaceful, and keeps changing the subject from Iran to Gaza. For those who are seduced by such facile slights of hand, Gaza has as much to do with Iran's nuclear program as it does with North Korea's. Since Israel attacked Gaza Iran should be allowed to pursue nuclear weapons? If you have a functioning prefrontal cortex, then you realize that this leap of logic makes zero sense. For those who then continue to complain about Israel's nukes (the more common complaint), why not complain about Pakistan's nukes? Or India's? If you are against all nukes- then that's a rational reason to be against Israel's program. But then you have to be against Iran's too. One day, Erdogan will wake up next to a nuclear-armed Iran, and suddenly realize that Turkey just lost a ton of (relative) regional power. But, as one American diplomat who worked with Turkey once complained to me, the Turks are experts at cutting off the nose to spite the face. Erdogan's Gaza outburst at Davos made sense politically- it radically improved Turkey's image on the coveted "Arab street" without substantially damaging Israeli ties. But sitting on his hands while Iran gets a bomb- that will have much more serious ramifications. - Jon  The War on Drugs has a lot in common with efforts against nuclear proliferation. Nuclear technology offers the potential to power the world without contributing to global warming. Radioactive isotopes are widely used in modern modern medicine for diagnostic purposes and some therapies. But highly enriched uranium holds the power to destroy the world. Similarly, drugs have both positive and negative applications. Take opium for instance. Morphine, an opium derivative, is an indispensable drug in medicine- perhaps the most effective painkiller known to man. But when used improperly, opium can ruin people and societies, especially in the "highly enriched" form of heroin. The problem is that banning drugs like heroin and cocaine don't make them go away, it just pushes them underground, into the hands of unscrupulous individuals. The world drug trade is a lively business controlled by organized crime. Similarly, the world nuclear trade has its own cartels-- imagine A. Q. Khan as Pablo Escobar and Kim Jong Il as Manuel Noriega. Iran has been able to progress so quickly on its nuclear program because it stood on the shoulders of international criminals. Click "Read More" to Continue ------> The Bigger Picture 10/04/2009
 As the days go by, the emerging evidence on Iran points to a country that is on the brink of becoming a nuclear power. Iran has already mastered enrichment, and has (at least) the theoretical knowledge of how to create a functioning nuclear implosion device-- necessary for missile-based nuclear warheads. The worst danger here is not that Iran has reached breakout capacity for making a nuclear bomb. Time won't stop when Iran joins the ranks of nuclear powers-- the Cold War nuclear doctrines still apply to antagonistic nuclear powers, if we assume that Iran's nuke is pointed at Israel. The biggest problem is that the world non-proliferation scheme is dead, and dealing with aspiring nuclear states on a case-by-case basis is futile. in defiance of the West, Pakistan and North Korea have become nuclear armed states over the past decade, and Iran looks to join them soon. The West needs to create a new framework to control proliferation before a new nuclear arms race begins. Policy recommendations will follow.  Attempts to discourage or impede Iran's nuclear program have, in large part, failed. Iran today is closer to having a nuclear weapon than ever before. Yet many commentators and politicians in the West are still bound, seemingly by religious conviction, to the very same tactics that have only perpetuated the crisis. For too long our Iran strategy has oscillated between sanctions, which have a dismal track record and are nearly impossible to enforce, and the explicit threat of violence, an option that the West has neither the stomach nor the resources to implement. It is clear that we need new, imaginative ideas if we intend to gain leverage and ultimately halt Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon. Unfortunately, our nation's many think tank dwellers and political pundits seem at a loss to provide such ideas. I do not think it is an overstatement to say that the lack of imagination and foresight on the part of Western strategists represents just as pernicious a threat to international security as Iran's ballistic missile and uranium enrichment programs. Thankfully, there are a few thinkers out there who are still coming up with inventive solutions. Over the next week, we will highlight a series of alternative ideas to address Iran's nuclear ambition. First up, Geoffrey Forden and John Thomson's proposal to short-circuit Iran's covert uranium enrichment efforts by establishing a multinational uranium enrichment facility hosted by the Iranians in exchange for Tehran's acceptance of expanded inspection protocols. More after the jump ---> | By Evan Tachovsky and Jon Friedman
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