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Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu. AP Photo.
Last week, Israelis hosted their annual national security gathering in Herzliya- a big conference open to the press that is usually a very frank examination of Israel's long-term national security situation. Apparently, Netanyahu was a flop, but Salaam Fayad and Ehud Barak made headlines. Money Quote from Tablet Magazine:

In an appearance many called courageous, Palestinian Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad, surrounded by a phalanx of Israeli and Palestinian bodyguards, accepted an invitation to be a keynote speaker at the annual gathering of Israel’s establishment, where he appealed for peace. Ignoring threats and condemnations by his rivals in Hamas for his decision to appear here in the packed auditorium, Fayyad called upon Israel to stop expanding settlements on the land of the future Palestinian state.

His message was not particularly new. Nor was that of Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who also appeared to restate Israel’s official position. But both men made gestures that went beyond what the stalled peace process would seem to allow. Fayyad did that simply by showing up on Tuesday night, rather than canceling, as he has done before. And Barak delivered a shot across the bow of his fractious coalition government by warning that unless progress on the peace front occurred now, Israel would either become a “bi-national” or an “apartheid state” headed inexorably into global isolation. 

A few participants gasped to hear the defense minister in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government use the language of Israel’s most virulent critics. Apartheid state? One of the panels here at Herzliya had described the effort to paint Israel’s occupation policies in the West Bank as analogous to South African apartheid as part of a “soft war” against the Jewish state.

One veteran European diplomat called the dueling appearances by Barak and Fayyad at the highly charged conference a “mood-changing moment.” “Both sides were signaling what they really wanted to do,” the diplomat said. Now they just have to figure out how to do it.

More than a few were shocked that Barak dropped the "a" word. People forget that despite leading Operation Cast Lead, Barak has traditionally been one of Israel's leading peaceniks. Daniel Levy offers analysis here
 
 
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Reports are that Obama's recent meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu lasted twice as long as expected. This meeting was after the Obama administration took a stand on stopping all new Israeli settlements, and Bibi basically said no.

Hillary then went to Israel and praised Bibi's decision as unprecedented (he said that he would not plan new settlements, but would still construct those that were planned). Arab public opinion roared in frustration and Obama looked spineless. Mahmoud Abbas, the unsung Palestinian president, can't take any more blows, and protests that he is stepping down. 

Now it seems that Obama is doing whatever he can do to backtrack on Clinton's statements and wrest concessions from Bibi in order to save Abbas and the Palestinian Authority, which could collapse if Abbas leaves. But Bibi's hardline stances keep his right-wing coalition together, so it will be hard to make him change position.
 
 
If you are a sick person and want to feel really depressed, curl up on the couch and read Lawrence Wright's excellent post-2006 history of Gaza, which is peppered with personal reporting. If you prefer a lighter dose, have a look at the Economist's take on Wright's piece.

Lawrence Wright is the opposite of the "microwave columnist," he's in his fifties but still out in the field trying to rub two sticks together. As far as I'm concerned, there is no better American reporter on the Arab world. And if you've never read anything by Lawrence Wright, get his book on Al-Qaeda in the lead up to 9/11. Otherwise, you don't know what you're missing.
 
 
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I am the Walrus
If you ever wonder why Tom Friedman still has his Sunday column, it's for instant classics like these: 

"...the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has left the realm of diplomacy. It is now more of a calisthenic, like weight-lifting or sit-ups, something diplomats do to stay in shape..."

Ditto for the North Korea nuclear talks. Please, let's not also make Iranian nuclear talks the next semi-permanent addition to the diplomatic olympics.

Friedman then goes on to call for the U.S. to just pull out of the peace process, which does have a cathartic appeal to it at the moment:

"If we are still begging Israel to stop building settlements, which is so manifestly idiotic, and the Palestinians to come to negotiations, which is so manifestly in their interest, and the Saudis to just give Israel a wink, which is so manifestly pathetic, we are in the wrong place. It’s time to call a halt to this dysfunctional “peace process,” which is only damaging the Obama team’s credibility."

But then flashback to 2007, when Friedman was chastising Bush for taking such a "realistic" approach and not engaging:

You can make fun all you want of Bill Clinton’s “naïve” Middle East peace passion, notes Mr. Clinton’s top negotiator, Dennis Ross, but the fact is four times more Israelis and Palestinians died fighting each other during the “realistic,” “pro-Israel,” sideline-sitting Bush years of 2001 to 2005 than in the “naïve” decade of intense U.S. peacemaking — dominated by President Clinton — from Madrid to Oslo, 1991 to 2000.

This is, of course, the advantage of being a columnist rather than a politician.

Back to Obama, not engaging would also have hurt his credibility- he raised the stakes with his Cairo speech. But what really hurt his credibility was that the Administration tried to do what every common sense person agrees on- stop the settlement building, and then backtracked when it ran up against Netanyahu's obstinacy. At the same time, the stars might just not be aligned--Netanyahu is too conservative and Abbas is too weak for any progress to be possible at the moment.

 
 

Here is the complete transcript from Netanyahu's speech this evening at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv. 

Quotes of Interest: 

"I turn to all Arab leaders tonight and I say: ' Let us meet. Let us speak of peace and let us make peace. I am ready to meet with you at any time.  I am willing to go to Damascus, to Riyadh, to Beirut, to any place- including Jerusalem.' I call on the Arab countries to cooperate with the Palestinians and with us to advance an economic peace. An economic peace is not a substitute for a political peace, but an important element to achieving it. Together, we can undertake projects to overcome the scarcities of our region, like water desalination or to maximize its advantages, like developing solar energy, or laying gas and petroleum lines, and transportation links between Asia, Africa and Europe."

"I turn to you, our Palestinian neighbors, led by the Palestinian Authority, and I say: Let’s begin 
negotiations immediately without preconditions. Israel is obligated by its international commitments and expects all parties to keep their commitments."

"We want to live with you in peace, as good neighbors. We want our children and your children to never again experience war: that parents, brothers and sisters will never again know the agony of losing loved ones in battle; that our children will be able to dream of a better future and realize that dream; and that together we will invest our energies in plowshares and pruning hooks, not swords and spears."

Also, the quick reference to Iran at the beginning was rather bizarre. I really thought Netanyahu would play up the Iran issue in light of the weekend's events. It would have been a good chance for him to signal to the Likud folks that he is still as hardline as ever while simultaneously playing on the international discontent with Ahmadinejad's reelection.

-Evan 

 
 
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In a story that has been festering on the back pages all week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to give a major foreign policy speech Sunday evening.

The exact content of this speech is anybodies guess. Reports have surfaced that he will back the formation of sovereign Palestinian state, although it is clear that this move would put him at odds with hardliners in his own party.

It is also unclear how the apparent reelection of Iranian hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will effect Netanyahu's strategic calculus.



-Evan

 

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