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Ali Rafiei/AFP

An Iranian blogger going by the name "Pedestian" is posting a realtime translation here and The Guardian's Ian Black has excellent analysis here.

To me the most striking aspect of the speech thus far was Rafsanjani's insistence that the Iranian Republic derives its legitimacy from the people and not from on high. This is a key distinction between Rafsanjani and Khamenei. 

 
The Reveal 07/16/2009
 

In the weeks following Iran's presidential election few men were at the center of more rumors than Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. He is widely reported to have been the driving force behind Moussavi's campaign and the subsequent protested that rocked Tehran. (For more background check out our "Iranian Election 2009" category.)

Despite all of the speculation, Rafsanjani has maintained a remarkably low profile appearing in public only once to meet with families of students who were killed during the protests.

Tomorrow he will break his silence when he gives the Friday sermon at Tehran University with Moussavi and Khatami in attendence. Abbas Milani has an excellent preview of what will certainly be a pivotal event here.
 

 
 

Excellent coverage from Al Jazeera's Hashem Ahelbarra (who sounds strangely like dracula).

 
 
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Since the Revolution in 1979, Iranian politics have been shaped by the actions of  political and religious elites who operate well outside of the public sphere. For all of the dramatic marches and university crackdowns, the current crisis in Iran is at its core the result of conflict between these rival elites. Even more importantly, the resolution will be the result of victory by one group or a tenuous compromise between them.

Predicting the exact trajectory of events in Iran in the coming weeks and months is a fool's task. That said, a firm grasp of the Iranian political system and  the elites who inhabit it will go a long way toward understanding the events as they occur. I recommend the BBC's brief guide to the Iranian political system as a good starting point.

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From the BBC
From everything I've been reading it seems like there are a few areas of inter-elite conflict that are of particular importance. Today I will focus on the cleavages in Iran's clerical elite and tomorrow I will shift to the Iranian military and security sector.

Let's begin with Assembly of Experts, where a proxy war for Iran's future is being waged. On one side is prominent pragmatist Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who currently heads the Assembly. On the other is Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, a hardline cleric with close ties to Ahmadinejad. Reports indicate that Rafsanjani's posse is more powerful than Yazdi's, although it is unclear if Rafsanjani has an absolute majority.

In the broader landscape of Iranian politics, Rafsanjani's control over the Assembly of Experts and significant influence in the clerical community in Qom are his most effective weapons in his longstanding rivalry with Supreme Leader Khamenei (check out this CIA report from 1983 for some background; the article is one of those scan to text jobs so it can be a bit hard to read at points, but it's worth it). The ultimate prize in the conflict is no less than control of Iran's political future.

As Khamenei ages (rather rapidly according some sources), the selection of his successor is a political reality, especially for those with vested interests. The selection of the next Supreme Leader will be a highly political affair. Three men have been rumored to be candidates: Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, Rafsanjani, and the Khamenei's son Mojtaba.

Consequentially, the current electoral cycle has been the terrain for a proxy war between Rafsanjani and Khamenei for political control. A Mousavi victory would have thrown the balance of power toward Rafsanjani both symbolically and practically. Khamenei understood this and worked to undermine Mousavi's victory.

So far, nothing out of the ordinary for Iranian politics. Khamenei basically did the same thing in the 2005 presidential election to ensure Ahmadinejad's victory over Rafsanjani.

The point where Khamenei and Rafsanjani's political ballet devolved into a knife fight was when Khamenei publicly threw his support behind Ahmadinejad by rushing to validate the contested electoral results. Khamenei's big misstep was that he underestimated public support for Mousavi and latent discontent with Ahmadinejad's policies, especially in Tehran. (The irony is when you don't actually count the votes, it's hard to see how many people are against you.)

Since then reports have surfaced that Rafsanjani is actively conducting a head count of his supporters in the Assembly of Experts and allies in Qom with the hope that he will have enough elite support to capitalize on the popular discontent with Khamenei and force the selection of a new Supreme Leader.

It's anyone guess if Rafsanjani will be successful in this endeavor. If he is, Khamenei would be well served to take a lesson from the Iranian Revolution and gracefully step aside instead of challenging the mullahs.

-Evan
 
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