Bloomberg reported last month that China inked a deal with Iran to help the Iranians expand their oil refining capacity.  Remember, one of the main "crippling" sanctions is a restriction on Iranian gasoline imports-- Iran has tons of oil, but little ability to turn it into gasoline.

Unless you've been living in a cave the past few days, you already know that sanctions against Iran have gathered tremendous momentum over the past few days, after Iran preemptively informed the IAEA of furtive nuclear operations in the mountains near Qom. Rather than serve as a news wire, our blog's goal is to analyze developments shed light on issues that don't get enough attention.  We'll have more coming soon.

September 2nd: 

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, announced that Tehran has prepared a new package of proposals for the 5+1 group (Permanent UN Security Council Members + Germany) on the nuclear stalemate.  "The Islamic Republic of Iran...is ready for cooperation to address shared concerns in the international arena," Jalili told reporters.

September 8th:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defiantly declared the nuclear talks "finished."  "We will never negotiate on the Iranian nation's obvious rights," said Ahmadinejad.  Instead, he asked the 5+1 group to wait for forthcoming Iranian proposals on "the main challenges facing humanity."

In my opinion, Iran has no intention of engaging in good-faith talks. The September 23 deadline (the start of the UN Grand Assembly meeting) for talks is approaching.  If Iran snubs the U.S., then the Obama Administration will be under tremendous pressure to retaliate somehow- or else appear weak.  The problem is, a military strike is foolhardy, and sanctions, which Iran is already preparing for, won't work.  A nuclear Iran is politically unpalatable, but is, in my opinion, the most likely eventual outcome.

- Jon

They cause civilian airplanes to crash. Or at least that's what many Iranians think.  World Politics Review's Masoud Shafaee reports:

Two of Iran's most notable dissidents, Akbar Ganji, a former Revolutionary Guard member who exposed the state-sanctioned Chain Murders of the 1990s, and Shirin Ebadi, the head of a civil and human rights legal practice awarded the Noble Peace Prize, have both come out strongly against any new sanctions. They, along with many in the reform movement, argue that sanctions only harm the Iranian people while strengthening the regime.    

A recent slew of airplane crashes in Iran this summer serves as a useful example. Because of U.S. sanctions, both U.S. and European airline manufacturers are prohibited from selling new planes or replacement parts to the Islamic Republic. Many within Iran consider the deaths resulting from the poor state of the country's air fleet to be a direct consequence of the sanctions. After 16 people died in the crash-landing of a Tehran flight last month, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi called the measures serious "human rights violations."

A harsh sanctions regime targeting Iranian gas imports seems like a great idea--in theory.

Iran's greatest strategic weakness is its lack of refinery capacity. Ironically, the country with some of the world's largest proven reserves of natural gas meets domestic demand by importing 40% of its refined petroleum. If you cut off this supply, the Ayatollahs will have to play ball, or so the argument goes.

Time to flash back to reality.

In the past sanctions have had virtually no effect on Iran's geopolitical position and nuclear ambitions. Another round of sanctions, even if it specifically targets Iran's refined petroleum imports, won't do a damn thing. Here's why:


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