In the aftermath of Iran's tumultuous election, Ayatollah Khamenei's increasingly public support for incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has come as somewhat of a shock to me. In effect, Khamenei has bet his own fortune and the fortune of the clerical elite that Ahmadinejad, with the support of the security services and hardline militias, will be able to put down the riots raging in the streets of Tehran.  (For graphic coverage of the ongoing battles between protesters and police check out Andrew Sullivan's blog The Daily Dish.)

This move is very different from Khamenei's reaction to the election of reform-minded President Mohammad Khatami in 1997. In that case Khamenei used his considerable influence to undermine almost every aspect of Khatami's agenda without open confrontation. (For a very interesting account of how Khamenei used Khatami as a scapegoat for a series of crackdowns on student protesters click here.) In fact this strategy was nothing new. Ayatollah Khomeini perfected it during his tenure as Iran's supreme leader. This luxury is the result of Iran's  political system, which positions the Ayatollah above plebeian occurrences such as elections, until now. 

The obvious question: Why does Khamenei feel the need to break with tradition and risk a new strategies?

**Warning: Speculation Ahead**

The answer is primarily that Khamenei feels vulnerable and securing the presidency is a necessary step toward reestablishing control, both over the Iranian elite and the public. The sudden rise of Mousavi's campaign, paired with the widespread discontent in the Iranian elite, including members of the Guardian Council that oversees the Supreme Leader, augured a shift in power, a shift Khamenei would not tolerate. (While it is pure speculation, I believe that much of the disagreement in the Iranian elite was the result of differing opinions on how Iran should respond to Obama's recent overtures.) 
 
This brings us to the present. Armed militias have driven protesters out of the streets and reports that government forces would be armed with live rounds forced the cancelation of a rally sponsored by the Mousavi campaign this afternoon.  It is clear that Ahmadinejad and Khamenei are prepared to do whatever is necessary to reestablish control over the city.

Control, however, is a poor substitute for legitimacy. 

The Supreme Leader's fate is now a matter of public opinion and if the current round of protests precipitates any sort of revolution, it would be just as much a revolt against Khamenei as it is against Ahmadinejad. 



-Evan

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