I wish coverage of the Iranian election aftermath was more like one of those choose your own adventure books.
If you believe that Ahmadinejad stole the election, go to page 2.
If you believe that support for Mousavi was greatly exaggerated by overly optimistic West media outlets in the run up to the election, go to page 3.
These two theories have dominated dialogue in the hours since the Iranian Ministry of the Interior announced that, by their count, the incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had soundly beaten challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi, taking home 62.63% of the vote.
For those who see systemic fraud as the only explanation, evidence abounds. Critics cite Ahmadinejad's victory in the predominantly Azeri town of Tabriz as a prime example. Mousavi is ethically Azeri and Iran's Azeris have historical voted along ethnic lines with little exception making an Ahmadinejad victory in the region next to impossible.
The MoI is filled with Ahmadinejad appointees and rigging the election would have been ridiculously easy. (My personal favorite theory is that Mousavi actually won 62.63% of the vote and that Ahmadinejad's cronies just switched the names.)
On the flip side, cynics and Ahmadinejad supporters say that Mousavi reformist wave was just the machination of a small, elite segment of the Iran's population magnified by the hope of the Western media.
From all I've seen and read, I'm guessing that the election was much closer to a statistical tie than the MoI the reported. Ahmadinejad probably had a slim lead, but neither candidate had the 50% necessary to declare absolute victory, which would have forced a run-off election next week. This would have given Mousavi valuable time to build on the momentum he generated since his debate with Ahmadinejad on June 3, resulting in a Mousavi win. But that's just speculation.
The real outcome of the Iranian election is exceptionally important to how the U.S. orients it Iran policy in the coming months. If Ahmadinejad really did receive over 60% of the popular vote, the Obama administration has some thinking to do. If the result are fraudulent and a popular shift is underway in Iran, the implications are even more dizzying. More on this when I get some free time to write.
-Evan
P.S. At least we can look forward to more award winning PSAs from VEVAK!
