From the green wave of protesters marching down Tehran's boulevards to the red blood flowing from those beaten by riot police, the recent turmoil in Iran has been saturated with color. To truly understand the contemporary political situation in Iran however, we must move beyond these image of protest into the gray world of Iranian elite politics.
Three weeks after Iran's election, the conflict between the Iranian political and religious elite rages on with the intensity of the 1972 Spassky v. Fischer World Chess Championship. On one side is Hashemi Rafsanjani, a consummate Machiavellian who has held almost every important position in Iran's political system at one time or another (except for supreme leader). On the other, current Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Both men hope to shape Iran's future in their image. The recent election, the subsequent protests and crackdown, and all of the political posturing along the way have, in large part, been the outward manifestations of their ambitions.
More after the jump -->
Three weeks after Iran's election, the conflict between the Iranian political and religious elite rages on with the intensity of the 1972 Spassky v. Fischer World Chess Championship. On one side is Hashemi Rafsanjani, a consummate Machiavellian who has held almost every important position in Iran's political system at one time or another (except for supreme leader). On the other, current Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Both men hope to shape Iran's future in their image. The recent election, the subsequent protests and crackdown, and all of the political posturing along the way have, in large part, been the outward manifestations of their ambitions.
More after the jump -->
Rafsanjani scored a key victory on Friday when the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qom published a statement on their website criticizing the recent election and the failure of the Guardian Council to adequately deal with complaints (see Jon's post for links and details). And as any undergrad with one semester of Iranian history under their belt can tell you, going against Qom has only resulted in ruin for previous Iranian leaders.
This development alone however does not mean that the crisis is over or even close to resolution. What Khamenei lacks in legitimacy he makes up for in raw power. His control over the security services and the Revolutionary Guard remains strong. Possibly more importantly, Khamenei remains in control of Iran state media apparatus, a powerful tool for spinning recent developments.
In this environment how should the US respond?
Those of you who read our site with some regularity know that I have been a proponent for engaging Iran in the aftermath of the recent election. While I still believe that engagement is necessary to ensure Iran does not become a nuclear power while we sit around waiting for a popular revolution that may or may not come, one element of my plan for engagement needs revision in light of recent events.
I originally stated that the US should attempt to open direct but clandestine talks with Iran sometime in the next six month. I fear now that this time line was a bit optimistic. Any American engagement must be postponed until the domestic political situation in Iran stabilizes, which may take months.
-Evan
This development alone however does not mean that the crisis is over or even close to resolution. What Khamenei lacks in legitimacy he makes up for in raw power. His control over the security services and the Revolutionary Guard remains strong. Possibly more importantly, Khamenei remains in control of Iran state media apparatus, a powerful tool for spinning recent developments.
In this environment how should the US respond?
Those of you who read our site with some regularity know that I have been a proponent for engaging Iran in the aftermath of the recent election. While I still believe that engagement is necessary to ensure Iran does not become a nuclear power while we sit around waiting for a popular revolution that may or may not come, one element of my plan for engagement needs revision in light of recent events.
I originally stated that the US should attempt to open direct but clandestine talks with Iran sometime in the next six month. I fear now that this time line was a bit optimistic. Any American engagement must be postponed until the domestic political situation in Iran stabilizes, which may take months.
-Evan
