Currently Reading 08/31/2009
"Reading Tarot Cards on K Street" by Philip Tetlock, The National Interest, September/October 2009.
Money quote: Karl Marx hit the nail on the head when he quipped that, when the train of history hits a curve, the intellectuals fall off. But there is still great potential for mischief in the political-forecasting business. The demand for accurate predictions is insatiable. Reliable suppliers are few and far between. And this gap between demand and supply creates opportunities for unscrupulous suppliers to fill the void by gulling desperate customers into thinking they are getting something no one else knows how to provide.
Money quote: Karl Marx hit the nail on the head when he quipped that, when the train of history hits a curve, the intellectuals fall off. But there is still great potential for mischief in the political-forecasting business. The demand for accurate predictions is insatiable. Reliable suppliers are few and far between. And this gap between demand and supply creates opportunities for unscrupulous suppliers to fill the void by gulling desperate customers into thinking they are getting something no one else knows how to provide.
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