Uncle Hamid Wants You!
The answer, surprisingly, is incumbent and New Delhi favorite Hamid Karzai.
On the surface, the incredible expansion of Indian influence in Afghanistan during Karzai's tenure seems to pose a threat to Pakistan's perceived interest. Since 2001 India has given Afghanistan $1.2 billion in development assistance for projects ranging from the construction of a new parliament building in Kabul to the education of Afghan bureaucrats in India. Moreover, Karzai has a long history of personal connections to India stretching back to his college days at Himachal Pradesh University.
Lest we forget, in 2008 Pakistani intelligence backed an attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul in a desperate attempt to impede India's growing influence in Kabul. Why would the Pakistani government refrain from interfering with Karzai's reelection bid this time around?
The answer is simple: The Zardari administration, in contrast to the Musharraf administration, values stability in Afghanistan over influence.
"From a Pakistan perspective, an Afghanistan that returns to deep instability as it has in the past, specifically in the 1990s, would be a cause for concern for Pakistan because it would probably bring greater instability inside Pakistan," says Daniel Markey, a Pakistan expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Karzai--for Islamabad's money--is a better bet to bring stability to Afghanistan than the relatively unknown Abdullah Abdullah.
On the surface, the incredible expansion of Indian influence in Afghanistan during Karzai's tenure seems to pose a threat to Pakistan's perceived interest. Since 2001 India has given Afghanistan $1.2 billion in development assistance for projects ranging from the construction of a new parliament building in Kabul to the education of Afghan bureaucrats in India. Moreover, Karzai has a long history of personal connections to India stretching back to his college days at Himachal Pradesh University.
Lest we forget, in 2008 Pakistani intelligence backed an attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul in a desperate attempt to impede India's growing influence in Kabul. Why would the Pakistani government refrain from interfering with Karzai's reelection bid this time around?
The answer is simple: The Zardari administration, in contrast to the Musharraf administration, values stability in Afghanistan over influence.
"From a Pakistan perspective, an Afghanistan that returns to deep instability as it has in the past, specifically in the 1990s, would be a cause for concern for Pakistan because it would probably bring greater instability inside Pakistan," says Daniel Markey, a Pakistan expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Karzai--for Islamabad's money--is a better bet to bring stability to Afghanistan than the relatively unknown Abdullah Abdullah.
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