CIA: Iran Has Enough Fuel for a Nuke 09/09/2009
Iranian Nuclear Facility at Natanz
According to American intelligence agencies, Iran has enough nuclear fuel to make a bomb. The last step is to enrich this fuel to weapons-grade. However, Iran seems to have paused at this juncture- and nobody is sure why.
Iran still also needs to master the warhead design and perfect a delivery system. Despite frequent boasting, Iran lacks confidence in its missiles, and dropping nuclear payloads from airplanes is dangerous, especially considering Israeli air superiority. Regardless, this is an important "crossing the Rubicon" moment, and the Iranian pause has important implications for policymakers.
This hesitation has 3 potential meanings:
Scenario 1: Paralysis
Terrified of an Israeli/American attack, riven by internal fissures, the Iranian leadership is divided on how to proceed. According to the 2007 NIE, Iran has hesitated before, halting work on a nuclear warhead (not enrichment) in 2003 after the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
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Iran still also needs to master the warhead design and perfect a delivery system. Despite frequent boasting, Iran lacks confidence in its missiles, and dropping nuclear payloads from airplanes is dangerous, especially considering Israeli air superiority. Regardless, this is an important "crossing the Rubicon" moment, and the Iranian pause has important implications for policymakers.
This hesitation has 3 potential meanings:
Scenario 1: Paralysis
Terrified of an Israeli/American attack, riven by internal fissures, the Iranian leadership is divided on how to proceed. According to the 2007 NIE, Iran has hesitated before, halting work on a nuclear warhead (not enrichment) in 2003 after the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
Click "Read More" to Continue ----->
Scenario 2: The Japanese Doctrine
Afraid of reprisal but envious of the security afforded by nuclear weapons, Iran purposefully stops just short of a nuclear weapon. However, it remains a "turn of the screwdriver" away from a bomb, making it a de facto nuclear state with all of the associated geostrategic benefits. Iran continues expanding its civilian nuclear infrastructure and nuclear knowledge without making an actual bomb. This would give Iran maximum bargaining power in any future negotiation while protecting it from accusations of wrongdoing. Japan is the most famous example of this-- it does not have a single nuclear weapon, but has advanced infrastructure and could manufacture a nuclear weapon on relatively short notice.
Scenario 3: SNAFU
The intelligence is wrong, and Iran hasn't paused. America's 16 Intelligence agencies severely lack credible intelligence on Iran. Since the U.S. severed relations with Iran in 1979, America has lacked a cover for spies to enter Iran. Instead, the U.S. has had to rely on Iranian dissident groups (like the Mujahideen-e Khalq) allies (Israel and Britain), and its "listening post" in Dubai for information.
I believe that Scenario 1 is the most likely of the three. The Iranian regime suffered a serious blow to its confidence after the turmoil of the past few months. World opinion of the regime has soured, factional differences have hardened, and Obama remains an unknown quantity for Iran.
Most of all, despite its rhetoric, Iran is afraid. It remains traumatized by the Iran-Iraq war, which left perhaps half a million Iranians dead and many more injured. Iran wants to gain the stability and geostrategic advantage guaranteed by nukes, but it doesn't want to risk losing everything in a war. America still has about 180,000 troops on both sides of Iran (Iraq and Afghanistan) and Israel has a fearsome air force. The Arab states (except Iraq) would be happy to see Iran vanquished. Just like in the 1980s, Iran would be fighting by itself. This is not what the Mullahs want.
The other 2 scenarios are also certainly possible. Regardless, expect more news as we approach the September 23rd deadline (the U.N. General Assembly Meeting) as both sides prepare for some sort of encounter.
- Jon
Afraid of reprisal but envious of the security afforded by nuclear weapons, Iran purposefully stops just short of a nuclear weapon. However, it remains a "turn of the screwdriver" away from a bomb, making it a de facto nuclear state with all of the associated geostrategic benefits. Iran continues expanding its civilian nuclear infrastructure and nuclear knowledge without making an actual bomb. This would give Iran maximum bargaining power in any future negotiation while protecting it from accusations of wrongdoing. Japan is the most famous example of this-- it does not have a single nuclear weapon, but has advanced infrastructure and could manufacture a nuclear weapon on relatively short notice.
Scenario 3: SNAFU
The intelligence is wrong, and Iran hasn't paused. America's 16 Intelligence agencies severely lack credible intelligence on Iran. Since the U.S. severed relations with Iran in 1979, America has lacked a cover for spies to enter Iran. Instead, the U.S. has had to rely on Iranian dissident groups (like the Mujahideen-e Khalq) allies (Israel and Britain), and its "listening post" in Dubai for information.
I believe that Scenario 1 is the most likely of the three. The Iranian regime suffered a serious blow to its confidence after the turmoil of the past few months. World opinion of the regime has soured, factional differences have hardened, and Obama remains an unknown quantity for Iran.
Most of all, despite its rhetoric, Iran is afraid. It remains traumatized by the Iran-Iraq war, which left perhaps half a million Iranians dead and many more injured. Iran wants to gain the stability and geostrategic advantage guaranteed by nukes, but it doesn't want to risk losing everything in a war. America still has about 180,000 troops on both sides of Iran (Iraq and Afghanistan) and Israel has a fearsome air force. The Arab states (except Iraq) would be happy to see Iran vanquished. Just like in the 1980s, Iran would be fighting by itself. This is not what the Mullahs want.
The other 2 scenarios are also certainly possible. Regardless, expect more news as we approach the September 23rd deadline (the U.N. General Assembly Meeting) as both sides prepare for some sort of encounter.
- Jon
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