America's Latest and Greatest Missile Defense System, THAAD
Question: Which country bought the most arms from the US in 2008?
The answer is the United Arab Emirates with $9.7 billion in new purchases. As you might guess, the UAE wasn't buying billions of dollars worth of M16s and hand grenades. The majority of the the money was spent on one weapons system: Lockheed Martin's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD).
Since this is a political blog and not a wonky one, I'll spare you the technical details. Basically what you need to know is that THAAD is a ground-based air defense systems that relies on kinetic instead of explosive energy to bring down its target and has a functional range of 200km.
Although much of the testing the Missile Defense Agency performs is about as close to real world operation as masturbation is to sex, THAAD has a perfect kill record since full system tests began in 2006. Check out video of the March 2009 test here.
THAAD was first deployed for use by US forces in May 2008. Four months later, the Bush administration agreed to sell the Emirates THAAD for a whopping $6.9 billion. Congress subsequently approved the deal and the UAE is set to take delivery of the system by the end of 2010. It doesn't take Henry Kissinger to figure out that the reason the US decided to sell the UAE its most advanced air defense system was to counter Iran's ability to threaten America's interests in the region.
The answer is the United Arab Emirates with $9.7 billion in new purchases. As you might guess, the UAE wasn't buying billions of dollars worth of M16s and hand grenades. The majority of the the money was spent on one weapons system: Lockheed Martin's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD).
Since this is a political blog and not a wonky one, I'll spare you the technical details. Basically what you need to know is that THAAD is a ground-based air defense systems that relies on kinetic instead of explosive energy to bring down its target and has a functional range of 200km.
Although much of the testing the Missile Defense Agency performs is about as close to real world operation as masturbation is to sex, THAAD has a perfect kill record since full system tests began in 2006. Check out video of the March 2009 test here.
THAAD was first deployed for use by US forces in May 2008. Four months later, the Bush administration agreed to sell the Emirates THAAD for a whopping $6.9 billion. Congress subsequently approved the deal and the UAE is set to take delivery of the system by the end of 2010. It doesn't take Henry Kissinger to figure out that the reason the US decided to sell the UAE its most advanced air defense system was to counter Iran's ability to threaten America's interests in the region.
Taken at face value the sale of THAAD to the UAE is a good move. In theory it will provide a comprehensive defensive answer to the threat of an Iranian attack or counter attackwhile symbolically reaffirming America's commitment to its Arab allies. Beyond the surface, however, there to serious flaws in the Bushian strategy of deterrence through missile defense.
First, the strategy relies on the integrity of the missile defense system. There is no evidence to suggest that under real world conditions THAAD will be as effect as its perfect test record indicates. Let's assume for the sake of conjecture that THAAD's real world kill rate is 70% (a generous figure considering that MDA tests are strictly controlled and do not take into account common decoy tactics). The UAE will have the capability to knock 7 out 10 Shahab rockets out of the sky before they reach their targets in the Gulf. The problem is that if Iran is able to build a nuclear weapon, the odds invert. A 70% kill rate becomes a 30% chance the UAE will cease to exist.
Second, THAAD's semi-permeability may incentivize Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. By lowering the effectiveness of Iran's conventional weapons, THAAD inadvertently reinforces the Iranian hardliners' argument that Iran must to go nuclear to get the respect it deserves.
First, the strategy relies on the integrity of the missile defense system. There is no evidence to suggest that under real world conditions THAAD will be as effect as its perfect test record indicates. Let's assume for the sake of conjecture that THAAD's real world kill rate is 70% (a generous figure considering that MDA tests are strictly controlled and do not take into account common decoy tactics). The UAE will have the capability to knock 7 out 10 Shahab rockets out of the sky before they reach their targets in the Gulf. The problem is that if Iran is able to build a nuclear weapon, the odds invert. A 70% kill rate becomes a 30% chance the UAE will cease to exist.
Second, THAAD's semi-permeability may incentivize Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. By lowering the effectiveness of Iran's conventional weapons, THAAD inadvertently reinforces the Iranian hardliners' argument that Iran must to go nuclear to get the respect it deserves.
Comments
Leave a Reply
Loading
