The Sanctions Pipedream 09/03/2009
A harsh sanctions regime targeting Iranian gas imports seems like a great idea--in theory.
Iran's greatest strategic weakness is its lack of refinery capacity. Ironically, the country with some of the world's largest proven reserves of natural gas meets domestic demand by importing 40% of its refined petroleum. If you cut off this supply, the Ayatollahs will have to play ball, or so the argument goes.
Time to flash back to reality.
In the past sanctions have had virtually no effect on Iran's geopolitical position and nuclear ambitions. Another round of sanctions, even if it specifically targets Iran's refined petroleum imports, won't do a damn thing. Here's why:
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Iran's greatest strategic weakness is its lack of refinery capacity. Ironically, the country with some of the world's largest proven reserves of natural gas meets domestic demand by importing 40% of its refined petroleum. If you cut off this supply, the Ayatollahs will have to play ball, or so the argument goes.
Time to flash back to reality.
In the past sanctions have had virtually no effect on Iran's geopolitical position and nuclear ambitions. Another round of sanctions, even if it specifically targets Iran's refined petroleum imports, won't do a damn thing. Here's why:
Click "Read More" To Continue ---->
Reason 1: Iran isn't North Korea.
Targeted sanctions against North Korea's economic interests, arguably, played a role on getting Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program in 2007. This was easy enough because a big chunk of North Korea's assets where holed up in shady banks in Macau. The Republican Guard does all of its money laundering through Sepah Bank, which has a branch on 5th Avenue.
Far from being an international pariah, Iran has a well diversified portfolio of trade relations. Brazil, China, Russia and most members of EU all do a significant amount of business with Iran. If you think all of these countries are going to cut the Persians off just because the Obama administration wants to play hardball, you are sorely mistaken.
Reason 2: Sanctions will hurt the poor, not the rich.
A dramatic rise in gas prices will hit normal Iranians where it hurts: their food and transportation budgets. Iran's clerical, military and political elites are already ridiculously rich, which means they won't feel the pinch.
Moreover, these sanctions will push the Iran's populous toward the hardliners rather than pulling them away. The current administration has absolute control over the mass media; they can frame the story however they want. When all the Iranian people hear is that the West is trying to starve them to death with a new round of sanction and Ahmadi is the only man strong enough to oppose the Zionist forces, who do you think they will support? Probably not Moussavi.
Everyone from John Bolton (a "What Not to Read" regular) to the NYT folks gets it. The problem is that more and more it sounds like American and British officials don't.
-Evan
Targeted sanctions against North Korea's economic interests, arguably, played a role on getting Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program in 2007. This was easy enough because a big chunk of North Korea's assets where holed up in shady banks in Macau. The Republican Guard does all of its money laundering through Sepah Bank, which has a branch on 5th Avenue.
Far from being an international pariah, Iran has a well diversified portfolio of trade relations. Brazil, China, Russia and most members of EU all do a significant amount of business with Iran. If you think all of these countries are going to cut the Persians off just because the Obama administration wants to play hardball, you are sorely mistaken.
Reason 2: Sanctions will hurt the poor, not the rich.
A dramatic rise in gas prices will hit normal Iranians where it hurts: their food and transportation budgets. Iran's clerical, military and political elites are already ridiculously rich, which means they won't feel the pinch.
Moreover, these sanctions will push the Iran's populous toward the hardliners rather than pulling them away. The current administration has absolute control over the mass media; they can frame the story however they want. When all the Iranian people hear is that the West is trying to starve them to death with a new round of sanction and Ahmadi is the only man strong enough to oppose the Zionist forces, who do you think they will support? Probably not Moussavi.
Everyone from John Bolton (a "What Not to Read" regular) to the NYT folks gets it. The problem is that more and more it sounds like American and British officials don't.
-Evan
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