Attempts to discourage or impede Iran's nuclear program have, in large part, failed. Iran today is closer to having a nuclear weapon than ever before. Yet many commentators and politicians in the West are still bound, seemingly by religious conviction, to the very same tactics that have only perpetuated the crisis.
For too long our Iran strategy has oscillated between sanctions, which have a dismal track record and are nearly impossible to enforce, and the explicit threat of violence, an option that the West has neither the stomach nor the resources to implement. It is clear that we need new, imaginative ideas if we intend to gain leverage and ultimately halt Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon.
Unfortunately, our nation's many think tank dwellers and political pundits seem at a loss to provide such ideas. I do not think it is an overstatement to say that the lack of imagination and foresight on the part of Western strategists represents just as pernicious a threat to international security as Iran's ballistic missile and uranium enrichment programs.
Thankfully, there are a few thinkers out there who are still coming up with inventive solutions. Over the next week, we will highlight a series of alternative ideas to address Iran's nuclear ambition.
First up, Geoffrey Forden and John Thomson's proposal to short-circuit Iran's covert uranium enrichment efforts by establishing a multinational uranium enrichment facility hosted by the Iranians in exchange for Tehran's acceptance of expanded inspection protocols.
More after the jump --->
For too long our Iran strategy has oscillated between sanctions, which have a dismal track record and are nearly impossible to enforce, and the explicit threat of violence, an option that the West has neither the stomach nor the resources to implement. It is clear that we need new, imaginative ideas if we intend to gain leverage and ultimately halt Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon.
Unfortunately, our nation's many think tank dwellers and political pundits seem at a loss to provide such ideas. I do not think it is an overstatement to say that the lack of imagination and foresight on the part of Western strategists represents just as pernicious a threat to international security as Iran's ballistic missile and uranium enrichment programs.
Thankfully, there are a few thinkers out there who are still coming up with inventive solutions. Over the next week, we will highlight a series of alternative ideas to address Iran's nuclear ambition.
First up, Geoffrey Forden and John Thomson's proposal to short-circuit Iran's covert uranium enrichment efforts by establishing a multinational uranium enrichment facility hosted by the Iranians in exchange for Tehran's acceptance of expanded inspection protocols.
More after the jump --->
Here's the plan in Forden and Thomson's own words:
The essence of the Forden-Thomson Plan is an agreement between a small number of governments to set up a large, high-quality enrichment plant in Iran under multilateral ownership and control and subject to stringent safeguards by the IAEA. [...] Under the Plan, there would be three levels of IAEA inspections - full scope safeguards (currently in operation), Additional Protocol and further ad hoc transparency measures. More important, having the multilateral facility on Iranian soil secures the best of all safeguards, societal verification.
According to Forden, This may seem paradoxical, but such a facility is the best ways of ensuring that Iran cannot set up other secret enrichment facilities later. We obviously now know that "suspension" is not the answer; they can use the freedom such inactivity gives their workers to setup new plants outside the prying IAEA inspectors' view. We need to be with the Iranian scientists and engineers 24 hours a day, seven days a week to understand what they are doing.
As Forden and Thomson acknowledge, this idea is not completely new. The Russians and the IAEA have both offered similar plans previously. But the Forden and Thomson articulation is by far the most technically and politically astute. The plan recognizes that Iran's nuclear program is a point of great national pride and that giving it up in response to Western pressure is not an option for its leaders--be they hardliners or otherwise. Forden and Thomson instead seek to channel this pride toward a much safer but none the less prestigious project.
Iran has previously indicated that it would be interested in hosting a multinational enrichment facility, although it is unclear where its leaders currently stand. It is imperative that the West offer such a plan as soon as possible. The longer Iran stands on the edge, the harder it will be to turn back.
-Evan
The essence of the Forden-Thomson Plan is an agreement between a small number of governments to set up a large, high-quality enrichment plant in Iran under multilateral ownership and control and subject to stringent safeguards by the IAEA. [...] Under the Plan, there would be three levels of IAEA inspections - full scope safeguards (currently in operation), Additional Protocol and further ad hoc transparency measures. More important, having the multilateral facility on Iranian soil secures the best of all safeguards, societal verification.
According to Forden, This may seem paradoxical, but such a facility is the best ways of ensuring that Iran cannot set up other secret enrichment facilities later. We obviously now know that "suspension" is not the answer; they can use the freedom such inactivity gives their workers to setup new plants outside the prying IAEA inspectors' view. We need to be with the Iranian scientists and engineers 24 hours a day, seven days a week to understand what they are doing.
As Forden and Thomson acknowledge, this idea is not completely new. The Russians and the IAEA have both offered similar plans previously. But the Forden and Thomson articulation is by far the most technically and politically astute. The plan recognizes that Iran's nuclear program is a point of great national pride and that giving it up in response to Western pressure is not an option for its leaders--be they hardliners or otherwise. Forden and Thomson instead seek to channel this pride toward a much safer but none the less prestigious project.
Iran has previously indicated that it would be interested in hosting a multinational enrichment facility, although it is unclear where its leaders currently stand. It is imperative that the West offer such a plan as soon as possible. The longer Iran stands on the edge, the harder it will be to turn back.
-Evan
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