The Bigger Picture 10/04/2009
As the days go by, the emerging evidence on Iran points to a country that is on the brink of becoming a nuclear power. Iran has already mastered enrichment, and has (at least) the theoretical knowledge of how to create a functioning nuclear implosion device-- necessary for missile-based nuclear warheads.
The worst danger here is not that Iran has reached breakout capacity for making a nuclear bomb. Time won't stop when Iran joins the ranks of nuclear powers-- the Cold War nuclear doctrines still apply to antagonistic nuclear powers, if we assume that Iran's nuke is pointed at Israel.
The biggest problem is that the world non-proliferation scheme is dead, and dealing with aspiring nuclear states on a case-by-case basis is futile. in defiance of the West, Pakistan and North Korea have become nuclear armed states over the past decade, and Iran looks to join them soon. The West needs to create a new framework to control proliferation before a new nuclear arms race begins. Policy recommendations will follow.
The worst danger here is not that Iran has reached breakout capacity for making a nuclear bomb. Time won't stop when Iran joins the ranks of nuclear powers-- the Cold War nuclear doctrines still apply to antagonistic nuclear powers, if we assume that Iran's nuke is pointed at Israel.
The biggest problem is that the world non-proliferation scheme is dead, and dealing with aspiring nuclear states on a case-by-case basis is futile. in defiance of the West, Pakistan and North Korea have become nuclear armed states over the past decade, and Iran looks to join them soon. The West needs to create a new framework to control proliferation before a new nuclear arms race begins. Policy recommendations will follow.
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