2009 In Review 12/31/2009
Since it 'tis the season for lists, here is mine for the top 10 international political developments of 2009:
10) The rise of Islamic fundamentalism in America. In November, we saw Nidal Malik Hasan, an American-born Palestinian go on a shooting rampage at Fort Hood military base in Texas. Hasan had been radicalized by another American-born Muslim, Anwar al-Awlaki. America long thought it was immune to the domestic Islamic terrorist threat that has plagued Britain and other countries. This has all changed.
9) The increase of unrest in the North Caucasus. This year the governor of Ingushetia narrowly survived a suicide car bombing. The interior minister of Dagestan was killed by a rain of bullets. Chechens probably derailed the train form St. Petersburg to Moscow that killed 25 and injured 100. Instability in the Caucasus hurts Medvedev domestically and makes Russia look weaker to the rest of the world.
8) The expansion of America's secret war. Under President Obama, drone strikes turned from an adjunct tool to a central plank in the war against al-Qaeda. The idea that America is globally assassinating terrorist leaders using remote controlled airplanes would've been science fiction 15 years ago. Today it is a daily reality.
7) The reintegration of Turkey into the Middle East. For a good part of the last millennium, the Turks were the strongest power in the Middle East. But after the Ottoman collapse and Ataturk's revolution, Turkey turned geopolitically isolationist. Fearful of the Soviet Union, Turkey threw its lot in with the West after 1950, largely following America's foreign policy. With the end of the Cold War, Turkey is finally finding its feet, and is now looking to fill the Middle Eastern power vacuum left by a divided Arab world and an unstable Iran. The expansion of Turkish power, as an example of a functioning democracy, is a positive development in the region.
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10) The rise of Islamic fundamentalism in America. In November, we saw Nidal Malik Hasan, an American-born Palestinian go on a shooting rampage at Fort Hood military base in Texas. Hasan had been radicalized by another American-born Muslim, Anwar al-Awlaki. America long thought it was immune to the domestic Islamic terrorist threat that has plagued Britain and other countries. This has all changed.
9) The increase of unrest in the North Caucasus. This year the governor of Ingushetia narrowly survived a suicide car bombing. The interior minister of Dagestan was killed by a rain of bullets. Chechens probably derailed the train form St. Petersburg to Moscow that killed 25 and injured 100. Instability in the Caucasus hurts Medvedev domestically and makes Russia look weaker to the rest of the world.
8) The expansion of America's secret war. Under President Obama, drone strikes turned from an adjunct tool to a central plank in the war against al-Qaeda. The idea that America is globally assassinating terrorist leaders using remote controlled airplanes would've been science fiction 15 years ago. Today it is a daily reality.
7) The reintegration of Turkey into the Middle East. For a good part of the last millennium, the Turks were the strongest power in the Middle East. But after the Ottoman collapse and Ataturk's revolution, Turkey turned geopolitically isolationist. Fearful of the Soviet Union, Turkey threw its lot in with the West after 1950, largely following America's foreign policy. With the end of the Cold War, Turkey is finally finding its feet, and is now looking to fill the Middle Eastern power vacuum left by a divided Arab world and an unstable Iran. The expansion of Turkish power, as an example of a functioning democracy, is a positive development in the region.
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6) The recognition of climate change as an international issue of import. This might seem odd considering the failure to achieve anything tangible at Copenhagen. But the idea that 200 nations, including all of the important world leaders, would meet with the goal of producing a treaty to reduce carbon emissions is incredible in its own right. Yes, this has happened before for peace talks and for economic planning, but for the environment? NGOs and student activists have proven that they do have the power to affect world politics. This development of a global grassroots is not to be overlooked.
5) The rise of inclusive global governance. From the G20 economic summit in Pittsburgh to Copenhagen, leaders of the traditional powers are sharing the stage with developing nations to try to solve global problems. This is due to a combination between the rise of a new political generation and the shortened economic distance between the first world and the third world. Look for this trend to continue.
4) The Great Recession's soft landing. World leaders proved wrong the most dire predictions and avoided a prolonged economic crisis. Much of the developing world- China in particular- emerged relatively unscathed. However, the world's traditional big economies-- the U.S., Britain, Japan, and Germany, have been slow to recover, and are saddled in debt. Worse, there is still no solution to the global imbalance between American and China that helped to inflate assets and make money cheap. Will China's neo-mercantilism continue? Is the Washington Consensus dead? The recession is over, but the future of the world economic system remains unclear.
3) The continual decline of European power. Yes, the European Union is a 500 million person, $15 trillion political entity. But the EU's most effective tool in the international arena, enlargement, is at a standstill. The elections of Lady Ashton and Herman van Rompuy only confirm that EU bureaucrats really do live in an alternate universe. And Europe's performance on its signature issue- climate change at Copenhagen- was an utter debacle. China ran roughshod over a divided bunch that didn't demonstrate strength or confidence. The Continent has never appeared more irrelevant.
2) The rise of China to the forefront of the world stage. People have been talking about the rise of China for a while, but now it has happened. The global financial crisis thrust China into the limelight, and Copenhagen kept it there. Flush with money while the developed world is strapped for cash, it is in an analogous economic position to the US at the end of WWII. But fear not: China has benefitted more than anybody from the Pax Americana, and doesn't want to see it end anytime soon. And the PRC has its own worries. Xinjiang and Tibet loom as tinderboxes of unrest. The Chinese people are a accustomed to 10% rise in their standard of living every year. This can't keep going on forever. Still, the future of China looks bright. How it positions itself will greatly affect the future of the world political system.
1. In world politics, nothing beats a good old-fashioned revolution. And that is what we have happening in Iran. Iran's economy is a mess, the Supreme Leader is feckless, and the youth are angry. The Revolutionary Guard has become increasingly brutal in its tactics, but the protestors remain resilient. Unlike other dictatorships in the region, the Iranian regime has always held itself to a higher standard. As the gap between rhetoric and reality widen, it is has become clear to the masses that the Iranian regime is neither Islamic nor a Republic. It can never hold another election nor survive another transfer of power. A new Iran, engaged with the world and responsible to its people, would make the Middle East a better place. Let's hope that this time Iran gets it right.
Happy New Year!
- Jon
5) The rise of inclusive global governance. From the G20 economic summit in Pittsburgh to Copenhagen, leaders of the traditional powers are sharing the stage with developing nations to try to solve global problems. This is due to a combination between the rise of a new political generation and the shortened economic distance between the first world and the third world. Look for this trend to continue.
4) The Great Recession's soft landing. World leaders proved wrong the most dire predictions and avoided a prolonged economic crisis. Much of the developing world- China in particular- emerged relatively unscathed. However, the world's traditional big economies-- the U.S., Britain, Japan, and Germany, have been slow to recover, and are saddled in debt. Worse, there is still no solution to the global imbalance between American and China that helped to inflate assets and make money cheap. Will China's neo-mercantilism continue? Is the Washington Consensus dead? The recession is over, but the future of the world economic system remains unclear.
3) The continual decline of European power. Yes, the European Union is a 500 million person, $15 trillion political entity. But the EU's most effective tool in the international arena, enlargement, is at a standstill. The elections of Lady Ashton and Herman van Rompuy only confirm that EU bureaucrats really do live in an alternate universe. And Europe's performance on its signature issue- climate change at Copenhagen- was an utter debacle. China ran roughshod over a divided bunch that didn't demonstrate strength or confidence. The Continent has never appeared more irrelevant.
2) The rise of China to the forefront of the world stage. People have been talking about the rise of China for a while, but now it has happened. The global financial crisis thrust China into the limelight, and Copenhagen kept it there. Flush with money while the developed world is strapped for cash, it is in an analogous economic position to the US at the end of WWII. But fear not: China has benefitted more than anybody from the Pax Americana, and doesn't want to see it end anytime soon. And the PRC has its own worries. Xinjiang and Tibet loom as tinderboxes of unrest. The Chinese people are a accustomed to 10% rise in their standard of living every year. This can't keep going on forever. Still, the future of China looks bright. How it positions itself will greatly affect the future of the world political system.
1. In world politics, nothing beats a good old-fashioned revolution. And that is what we have happening in Iran. Iran's economy is a mess, the Supreme Leader is feckless, and the youth are angry. The Revolutionary Guard has become increasingly brutal in its tactics, but the protestors remain resilient. Unlike other dictatorships in the region, the Iranian regime has always held itself to a higher standard. As the gap between rhetoric and reality widen, it is has become clear to the masses that the Iranian regime is neither Islamic nor a Republic. It can never hold another election nor survive another transfer of power. A new Iran, engaged with the world and responsible to its people, would make the Middle East a better place. Let's hope that this time Iran gets it right.
Happy New Year!
- Jon
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