Turkey's foreign policy since AKP solidified its domestic political position in 2007 has largely been defined by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's dogmatic interest in eliminating potential liabilities. One of his most notable successes has been the improvement of Turkey's relationship with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Northern Iraq.

On October 31st, less than three years after Turkish troops invaded Northern Iraq, Davutoglu stood shoulder to shoulder with KRG President Masoud Barzani at the inauguration of Turkey's new consulate in Erbil--an image very few Turkey observers thought they would ever see.

Undergirding the dramatic improvement of diplomatic ties has been the growth of economic relations between Turkey and the KRG. Turkey is by far the region's largest source of foreign direct investment and Turkish companies participate in virtually every sector of the Kurdish economy from construction to airport management. Additionally, natural gas from the Kurdish controlled regions of Iraq is an important part of Turkey's plan to become a regional energy hub.

Unfortunately, Davutoglu's masterpiece is in danger.

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After a period of apparent progress between Kurds and Turks on the Turkish side of the border, tensions are once again rising. On December 8th, Turkey's highest court began deliberations in a closure case against the Democratic Society Party (Demokratik Toplum Partisi or DTP). If the court does decide to close DTP, all 21 of its representatives would be forced to resign from parliament and its chairman Ahmet Turk would be banned from politics for five years. These developments would effectively remove the Kurds from mainstream political discourse in Turkey.

In Diyarbakir, the potential closure of DTP  sparked a series of large protests over the weekend in which one student was shot dead. This unrest comes just days after an apparent PKK attack on a Turkish military convoy in which seven soldiers were killed. Questions remain as to who actually carried out the attacks, but its clear that the Turkish public largely places the blame on PKK.

These developments shouldn't come as a surprise. Both Kurds and Turks have always been deeply skeptical of AKP's attempts to reach out to Turkey's biggest minority. The Kurds largely do not trust AKP and see their advances as political motivated. On the other side, the Turkish public has never fully warmed to the idea of rapprochement and according to a recent poll by Istanbul-based A&G Research, support for Erdogan's southeastern initiative fell 31% since June.

These domestic realities threaten to slow the expansion of cooperation between the Ankara and Erbil. The potential closure of DTP would completely undermine all of AKP's effort to reach out to the Kurds and almost certainly reinvigorate militant Kurdish elements. These developments would plunge Turkey's southeastern provinces into chaos, threatening the existing cross-boarder pipelines and trade routes and making the construction of new infrastructure difficult and costly.

Heighten tensions with Kurds at home will strengthen domestic critics of AKP's attempt to engage with Kurds abroad. Thus far, opposition to AKP's policy in Northern Iraq has been muted by the fact that Turkish opposition parties are remarkably weak. If public opinion swings against AKP because of the failure of its southeastern initiative, Davutoglu will have a much harder time implementing his foreign policy of "Strategic Depth" in Northern Iraq and throughout the region.

Update: DTP is done. From the Guardian:

After four days of deliberations, the constitutional court in Ankara ruled the Democratic Society party (DTP) "a focal point for terrorism against the indivisible integrity of the state". The party, which has 21 MPs in Turkey's 544-member parliament, is accused of cooperation with the Kurdistan Workers' party (PKK), which Turkey, the US and the European Union designate a terrorist organisation. The DTP chairman, Ahmet Turk, and 36 members were banned from politics for five years.