New year, same story in Russia's near abroad. On the first anniversary of the 2009 Ukraine-Russian gas crisis, Russia is once again embroiled in a conflict over fuel with a former Soviet state, this time Belarus.

The row began when the two sides failed to sign a new oil delivery agreement before the old one ran out on December 31st, 2009. At issue is the potential reduction of Russian subsidies that allowed Belarus to purchase oil for domestic consumption duty-free and for export at 35.6% of the standard tariff rate. Overall, the price hike would cost Belarus $2.5 billion or 5% of its GPD in 2010.

Over the weekend, it became apparent that a quick solution wouldn't be forthcoming when Belenergo, the Belarusian state electric company, announced that it was planning to cut the transfer of electricity to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.

If you haven't checked in on Russian-Belarusian relations for a while this rancor may come as a bit of a shock. The two countries remained extremely close after the disintegration of the Soviet Union; current president Aleksandr G. Lukashenko was all but installed by the Kremlin in 1994 and a big part of his policy has been cooperation with Russia under the framework of the Union State.

Relations began to slip in 2007 when Lukashenko protested an increase in the price of Russian gas. Since that initial tiff, the Belarusian president has attempted to gain leverage against Russia by pursuing better relations with the West while giving Moscow the finger any chance he gets. 

The issue is that the West has little to gain by dealing with Mr. Lukashenko (see political pariah in the dictionary for picture) and more to loose from angering Russia unnecessarily. Unless Lukashenko comes back to heel, it will likely be a very cold winter in Minsk.