From Daniel Larison:
The failure of the Green movement to destabilize the Iranian regime on Feb. 11 has removed the last excuse for delaying meaningful, sustained negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Unfortunately, the Obama administration appears trapped by the failures of the past and incapable of advancing U.S. interests.
Until the Iranian regime showed its ability to divide and control its opposition, there remained a remote hope that internal resistance might force changes in the government, easing the Obama administration’s task of coping with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Now that this illusion has been shattered, the administration must recognize the futility of its current course. Should he continue to pursue the "pressure track," attempting to orchestrate international pressure against Iran, President Obama will only damage important relationships with Russia and China while achieving none of his objectives.
The issue here is optics. Many realists in the Obama Administration realize that if Tehran is determined to get the bomb, there is no way to stop it. Larison wants more negotiations. But to look like a fool and continue with phony negotiations is bad politics. So is sitting on your hands and doing nothing. For Obama, sanctions offer a relatively benign method for splitting the difference between disastrous air strikes and losing public support. If Iran gets the bomb under Obama’s watch, he is going to have to explain himself, even though he has no viable way to stop it. Additionally, sanctions buy time against the possibility of an Israeli air strike, which could be catastrophic for the region.
The failure of the Green movement to destabilize the Iranian regime on Feb. 11 has removed the last excuse for delaying meaningful, sustained negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Unfortunately, the Obama administration appears trapped by the failures of the past and incapable of advancing U.S. interests.
Until the Iranian regime showed its ability to divide and control its opposition, there remained a remote hope that internal resistance might force changes in the government, easing the Obama administration’s task of coping with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Now that this illusion has been shattered, the administration must recognize the futility of its current course. Should he continue to pursue the "pressure track," attempting to orchestrate international pressure against Iran, President Obama will only damage important relationships with Russia and China while achieving none of his objectives.
The issue here is optics. Many realists in the Obama Administration realize that if Tehran is determined to get the bomb, there is no way to stop it. Larison wants more negotiations. But to look like a fool and continue with phony negotiations is bad politics. So is sitting on your hands and doing nothing. For Obama, sanctions offer a relatively benign method for splitting the difference between disastrous air strikes and losing public support. If Iran gets the bomb under Obama’s watch, he is going to have to explain himself, even though he has no viable way to stop it. Additionally, sanctions buy time against the possibility of an Israeli air strike, which could be catastrophic for the region.
