The Situation in Iran 02/04/2010
Arash Pour was executed last week by Iran for being 'an enemy of God'. Getty Images
Since my "What Not to Read" post criticizing Hillary and Flynt Leverett's recent article, we’ve been rather quiet here at Politics By Other Means on the status of Iran.
New polling data on Iran has bolstered the Flynt Leveretts of the world, along with Daniel Larison, who want to claim that Ahmadinejad won in the first place and that most Iranians back him. Their goal is lofty—to prevent a neocon inspired attack on Iran, but their evidence is wrong.
These polls are mostly worthless. The only way to get a statistically valid (i.e. random) sample is by calling telephone landlines. However, no Iranian under 30 (most of the population) uses a landline--they use cellphones. Secondly, few Iranians, even before the recent crackdown on dissent, will give honest answers to strangers on the telephone. Iranian pollsters traditionally gauge sentiment by recruiting people from different areas and then having them conduct interview through contacts--- a method highly compromised by selection bias but necessary to obtain honest answers. So, roughly speaking, don't trust any poll conducted in Iran.
The fact of the matter is that Iran has irrevocably changed since June 12th. Every symbolic commemoration of the revolution since then has been hijacked by mass protests. Iranians stood as witnesses as thousands of demonstrators were arrested, tortured, beaten, and many even raped in jail. The Supreme Leader is no longer above politics, and a man with as much credibility as Mir Hossein Mousavi, one of Khomeini’s closest confidants, has turned against the regime. This is a huge blow to the IRI's legitimacy as a state which claims to hold itself to higher values.
The Green Movement is the result of a “civil society” movement built by Khatami that is now coming of age, under the nominal leadership of Karroubi and Mousavi. They have been waiting for something to galvanize them. Remember, 70% of the population voted for Khatami's liberal reform platform in 1997, in what was a fair election. These reforms were blocked by the establishment in every manner. But the voters who supported those policies haven't disappeared, they've just gone into disillusionment until now.
Nobody knows were the current situation leads to. Recent reports that Karroubi has thrown in the towel are false. Since Khamenei pronounced that Ahmadenijad is the President of Iran, Karroubi has to recognize this fact, because not doing so would question Khamenei’s authority. By acknowledging that Ahmadinejad is president by virtue of the Supreme Leader's power (rather than because of the election), this gives Khamenei more wiggle room to get rid of Ahmadinejad while retaining his position of supremacy (if he so chooses). The Karroubi/Khatami/Mousavi camp is in communication with Khamenei through a group clerical intermediaries.
Ahmadinejad is only the most visible symbol of Iran’s problems, and the need to use fraud in the election only shows his insecurity. The deeper, less exciting issue is disastrous economic mismanagement, due to the complete takeover of the economy by brutes from the Revolutionary Guards. Add to this an increasingly stifling social and intellectual climate for a young population.
I staked my claim when we started this blog that Ahmadinejad will not serve out his current term. Making predictions in this business is foolish, but I'm sticking with that. The Green movement will either have to radicalize or compromise. Losing momentum is the biggest danger. The worst outcome is that Iran turns into a security state led by the Revolutionary Guards. In the meantime, though, we'll wait for February 11th—the anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, to see what happens next. This is history unfolding live in front of our eyes, and it won't be written by bloggers; it will be written by the people of Iran.
- Jon
New polling data on Iran has bolstered the Flynt Leveretts of the world, along with Daniel Larison, who want to claim that Ahmadinejad won in the first place and that most Iranians back him. Their goal is lofty—to prevent a neocon inspired attack on Iran, but their evidence is wrong.
These polls are mostly worthless. The only way to get a statistically valid (i.e. random) sample is by calling telephone landlines. However, no Iranian under 30 (most of the population) uses a landline--they use cellphones. Secondly, few Iranians, even before the recent crackdown on dissent, will give honest answers to strangers on the telephone. Iranian pollsters traditionally gauge sentiment by recruiting people from different areas and then having them conduct interview through contacts--- a method highly compromised by selection bias but necessary to obtain honest answers. So, roughly speaking, don't trust any poll conducted in Iran.
The fact of the matter is that Iran has irrevocably changed since June 12th. Every symbolic commemoration of the revolution since then has been hijacked by mass protests. Iranians stood as witnesses as thousands of demonstrators were arrested, tortured, beaten, and many even raped in jail. The Supreme Leader is no longer above politics, and a man with as much credibility as Mir Hossein Mousavi, one of Khomeini’s closest confidants, has turned against the regime. This is a huge blow to the IRI's legitimacy as a state which claims to hold itself to higher values.
The Green Movement is the result of a “civil society” movement built by Khatami that is now coming of age, under the nominal leadership of Karroubi and Mousavi. They have been waiting for something to galvanize them. Remember, 70% of the population voted for Khatami's liberal reform platform in 1997, in what was a fair election. These reforms were blocked by the establishment in every manner. But the voters who supported those policies haven't disappeared, they've just gone into disillusionment until now.
Nobody knows were the current situation leads to. Recent reports that Karroubi has thrown in the towel are false. Since Khamenei pronounced that Ahmadenijad is the President of Iran, Karroubi has to recognize this fact, because not doing so would question Khamenei’s authority. By acknowledging that Ahmadinejad is president by virtue of the Supreme Leader's power (rather than because of the election), this gives Khamenei more wiggle room to get rid of Ahmadinejad while retaining his position of supremacy (if he so chooses). The Karroubi/Khatami/Mousavi camp is in communication with Khamenei through a group clerical intermediaries.
Ahmadinejad is only the most visible symbol of Iran’s problems, and the need to use fraud in the election only shows his insecurity. The deeper, less exciting issue is disastrous economic mismanagement, due to the complete takeover of the economy by brutes from the Revolutionary Guards. Add to this an increasingly stifling social and intellectual climate for a young population.
I staked my claim when we started this blog that Ahmadinejad will not serve out his current term. Making predictions in this business is foolish, but I'm sticking with that. The Green movement will either have to radicalize or compromise. Losing momentum is the biggest danger. The worst outcome is that Iran turns into a security state led by the Revolutionary Guards. In the meantime, though, we'll wait for February 11th—the anniversary of the Iranian Revolution, to see what happens next. This is history unfolding live in front of our eyes, and it won't be written by bloggers; it will be written by the people of Iran.
- Jon
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