Black Monday & Egypt 05/31/2010
A lot of questions remain after Israel attacked an aid flotilla headed for Gaza early this morning: Why launch an operation against protesters in darkness at 4:00 am, a time that would maximize chaos? Why not wait until the ships entered territorial waters? Why launch an attack at all, when there were less risky ways to divert the ships? [update: Israel attacked at night to avoid media coverage. That worked out well]
The only thing that is clear is that Israel walked, with hubris, right into a giant trap. And Binyamin Netanyahu is leading one of the most diplomatically incompetent governments in history.
As the world waits to see how Turkey responds, another country to watch is Egypt. Many people (especially outside of the Arab world and Iran) often forget this fact—but the Gaza blockade is a two country affair. Egypt also has a border with Gaza, and by opening the Refah crossing, it could end the blockade any minute that it wants to. Egyptian President Mubarak's support for the blockade is extremely unpopular at home, and it makes him a frequent target of invectives from al-Jazeera, Hezbullah TV (al-Manar), and Iranian government mouthpieces.
But Mubarak also loathes Hamas, which is an offshoot of Mubarak’s main domestic opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood. Let’s see if he can withstand pressure this time. And if Turkey wants to use its opportunity in the spotlight to make the blockade untenable, it should not only condemn Israel but also put heavy pressure on Egypt, which is more likely to crack.
P.S. For those who aren’t familiar with the history of the region, Gaza was actually part of Egypt until Israel conquered the territory in the 1967 Six-Day War. Many Israelis undoubtedly wish that it was still part of Egypt.
- Jon
The only thing that is clear is that Israel walked, with hubris, right into a giant trap. And Binyamin Netanyahu is leading one of the most diplomatically incompetent governments in history.
As the world waits to see how Turkey responds, another country to watch is Egypt. Many people (especially outside of the Arab world and Iran) often forget this fact—but the Gaza blockade is a two country affair. Egypt also has a border with Gaza, and by opening the Refah crossing, it could end the blockade any minute that it wants to. Egyptian President Mubarak's support for the blockade is extremely unpopular at home, and it makes him a frequent target of invectives from al-Jazeera, Hezbullah TV (al-Manar), and Iranian government mouthpieces.
But Mubarak also loathes Hamas, which is an offshoot of Mubarak’s main domestic opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood. Let’s see if he can withstand pressure this time. And if Turkey wants to use its opportunity in the spotlight to make the blockade untenable, it should not only condemn Israel but also put heavy pressure on Egypt, which is more likely to crack.
P.S. For those who aren’t familiar with the history of the region, Gaza was actually part of Egypt until Israel conquered the territory in the 1967 Six-Day War. Many Israelis undoubtedly wish that it was still part of Egypt.
- Jon
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