The Politics of Sisyphus 05/30/2010
Sometimes following politics makes me depressed, especially when it seems that events control men, not vice versa. This is one of those times.
In America, the best and the brightest have spent 5 weeks trying to close a hole in the ocean. Plan A was to put something really heavy on top of the hole. Plan B is to stuff the hole with mud and some golf balls. Plan C? Err, back to Plan A. Helpless. (Surely, this has nothing to do with international affairs. But its absurdity makes it a fitting microcosm of the American mood nevertheless)
In Asia, North Korea sunk South Korea’s Cheonan warship over two months ago. The response? The West, plus S. Korea and Japan, might convince China to pass a big resolution at the UN National Security Council. (Oooh! Scary!)
In the Middle East, America and France have been working tooth and nail to pass UN sanctions against Iran. The putative reason? To stop Iran’s nuclear program. Could a means be more mismatched to a purpose? This is more a confession of impotence than it is a viable strategy.
The list goes on, from the never-ending financial crisis to inertia in Afghanistan. Events, in the West at least, seem to have gotten the better of us. This feeling of powerlessness is not happenstance, however. It is instead born of the West’s excessive ambitiousness in the post-Cold War era, mixed with the unpredictability of an increasingly multipolar international system.
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In America, the best and the brightest have spent 5 weeks trying to close a hole in the ocean. Plan A was to put something really heavy on top of the hole. Plan B is to stuff the hole with mud and some golf balls. Plan C? Err, back to Plan A. Helpless. (Surely, this has nothing to do with international affairs. But its absurdity makes it a fitting microcosm of the American mood nevertheless)
In Asia, North Korea sunk South Korea’s Cheonan warship over two months ago. The response? The West, plus S. Korea and Japan, might convince China to pass a big resolution at the UN National Security Council. (Oooh! Scary!)
In the Middle East, America and France have been working tooth and nail to pass UN sanctions against Iran. The putative reason? To stop Iran’s nuclear program. Could a means be more mismatched to a purpose? This is more a confession of impotence than it is a viable strategy.
The list goes on, from the never-ending financial crisis to inertia in Afghanistan. Events, in the West at least, seem to have gotten the better of us. This feeling of powerlessness is not happenstance, however. It is instead born of the West’s excessive ambitiousness in the post-Cold War era, mixed with the unpredictability of an increasingly multipolar international system.
Click "Read More" to Continue------->
To mark their victory in the Cold War, America & Europe both embarked on monumental projects. America, in the “unipolar moment” that never was, tried to build a New World Order. This endeavor has mostly failed. European states, so proud of having tamed the market, now watch in panic as the market threatens to ruin the EU project. But since the EU project ultimately concerns itself, Europe can decide its own destiny--integration or disintegration. America, by contrast, cannot control the direction of the world. And until expectations of what American power can achieve decline to match real capabilities, disappointment will continue.
America faced a similar challenge 40 years ago. During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union together upheld a world order with rules that kept events fairly manageable. Nevertheless, America tried to shape the future by force, until the 1970s—when it became clear that it couldn’t determine the destiny of East Asia. This was the first Sisyphean task that US undertook. Humbled by China, North Korea, and Vietnam, America had to severely moderate expectations about its ability to forge the future.
However, the fall of the Soviet Union and the prosperity of the 1990s, caused by forces beyond anyone’s control, reflated the West’s confidence that it could again perform miracles. America marched triumphantly into Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iraq again. Europe built a post-national economy that promised to make it a 21st century superpower. The West’s failure to stop repeated bloodbath in the Balkans was a warning, but it wasn’t heeded. Now, the bubble is bursting not just in the markets, but also in our collective confidence.
America can’t create a new order by itself, and Europe remains riven by internal fissures. Just when the American Sisyphus seemed to have reached the pinnacle in 2003, Iraq came crashing down, and Afghanistan soon followed. NATO expansion is frozen, the Washington Consensus is shattered, and the limits of American might are increasingly made clear in the deserts of South Asia. Western indebtedness is, for the first time, shifting economic power eastwards. Other powers, including China, Russia, Brazil, and Turkey, are confident enough to increasingly ignore America’s lead on global issues.
The current disorder is a herald of multipolarity—a configuration that makes cooperation more difficult and events more unpredictable. Grand ideologies—such as communism and liberalism, so important for organizing unipolar and bipolar systems, tend to yield to naked national interest in the messier multipolar world.
For those who care about a strong American foreign policy, the future needn’t appear bleak. America’s actual power hasn’t changed, and its economic base remains the strongest west of Beijing. The prosperity of the 1990s was built not on the hubris of the Korean and Vietnam wars, but on the prudence of the 1980s, when America capitalized on others’ mistakes to win the Cold War.
Yet for the time being, America is in a crisis of control. For 50 years, the US led a coalition that was bound by a common cause. It took solace in the regularity conferred by bipolarity. In the post-Cold War period, America still leads, but it’s not clear who is following. Despite its best attempts, it is impossible for America to establish a new order through nation building. It was probably foolish to even try.
Although the US cannot control events, events do not have to control the US. Once the US takes on fewer responsibilities, it will again be able to pursue its interests effectively. But if America continues to pretend that it can build a new world order, then it will continue to resemble Sisyphus, wilting under a burden that it alone cannot bear.
-Jon
America faced a similar challenge 40 years ago. During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union together upheld a world order with rules that kept events fairly manageable. Nevertheless, America tried to shape the future by force, until the 1970s—when it became clear that it couldn’t determine the destiny of East Asia. This was the first Sisyphean task that US undertook. Humbled by China, North Korea, and Vietnam, America had to severely moderate expectations about its ability to forge the future.
However, the fall of the Soviet Union and the prosperity of the 1990s, caused by forces beyond anyone’s control, reflated the West’s confidence that it could again perform miracles. America marched triumphantly into Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iraq again. Europe built a post-national economy that promised to make it a 21st century superpower. The West’s failure to stop repeated bloodbath in the Balkans was a warning, but it wasn’t heeded. Now, the bubble is bursting not just in the markets, but also in our collective confidence.
America can’t create a new order by itself, and Europe remains riven by internal fissures. Just when the American Sisyphus seemed to have reached the pinnacle in 2003, Iraq came crashing down, and Afghanistan soon followed. NATO expansion is frozen, the Washington Consensus is shattered, and the limits of American might are increasingly made clear in the deserts of South Asia. Western indebtedness is, for the first time, shifting economic power eastwards. Other powers, including China, Russia, Brazil, and Turkey, are confident enough to increasingly ignore America’s lead on global issues.
The current disorder is a herald of multipolarity—a configuration that makes cooperation more difficult and events more unpredictable. Grand ideologies—such as communism and liberalism, so important for organizing unipolar and bipolar systems, tend to yield to naked national interest in the messier multipolar world.
For those who care about a strong American foreign policy, the future needn’t appear bleak. America’s actual power hasn’t changed, and its economic base remains the strongest west of Beijing. The prosperity of the 1990s was built not on the hubris of the Korean and Vietnam wars, but on the prudence of the 1980s, when America capitalized on others’ mistakes to win the Cold War.
Yet for the time being, America is in a crisis of control. For 50 years, the US led a coalition that was bound by a common cause. It took solace in the regularity conferred by bipolarity. In the post-Cold War period, America still leads, but it’s not clear who is following. Despite its best attempts, it is impossible for America to establish a new order through nation building. It was probably foolish to even try.
Although the US cannot control events, events do not have to control the US. Once the US takes on fewer responsibilities, it will again be able to pursue its interests effectively. But if America continues to pretend that it can build a new world order, then it will continue to resemble Sisyphus, wilting under a burden that it alone cannot bear.
-Jon
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