I've written a lot about this subject. Much of it consisted of instant reactions. Now that there has been a chance for the facts to come out more clearly, I have a better ability to form an opinion.

Firstly, I increasingly agree with what Joe said here. I agreed with it then (see the comment on the post) in terms of the ship members being instigators looking for a fight, not peace activists. This was confirmed in photos of the hapless Israeli commandos that have been circulating in the Turkish press. Turkish commentators have made fun of the commandos for being wussies, but if anything, this shows the degree to which the IDF did everything possible to handle the issue peacefully before resorting to guns. And its not as if the boarding wasn't preceded by warning calls to the ship, and it wasn't as if the Israeli gov't wasn't rebuffed by the Turkish gov't in calls to negotiate over the ship, and it wasn't as if Israel publicly said they were prepared to use force.  The media was very unfair on this point.

For Turks, there has been some realization of this. Fethullah Gulen, traditionally the Turkish Islamic leader with the largest following, said that the Gaza protestors took the wrong approach by seeking confrontation (he is getting killed for this in some of Turkey's Islamist press). The opposition CHP made similar comments about how Erdogan's government encouraged the confrontation.

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While I still don't know why Israel didn't wait for the ship to enter territorial waters, it is clearer now why Israel had few options but to board the ship by helicopter. It was too big a of a ship to board via boat (unlike the others), and it was too heavy to tow. Any other option that didn't involve Israel taking control of an intact ship would have likely left the Mavi Marmara stranded at sea, with non-stop media coverage.

From a wider perspective, the escalating confrontation between Erdogan's Islamist government and Israel may have been inevitable. Much of my anger at Netanyahu stems from his administration's ham-fisted approach to diplomacy, including senselessly humiliating the Turkish Ambassador to Israel (with a low couch) and Joe Biden. I had assumed it was more carelessness when it came to Mavi Marama. However, aside from an intelligence failure about the type of people on the boat, a poor choice of time of day, and the international waters issue, it seems that the Netanyahu administration did what could be expected. 

From a more substantive standpoint, Netanyahu's reluctance to move an inch on settlements might be good for his short-term political prospects, but it makes peace based on a two-state solution increasingly impossible. In terms of Gaza, yes Hamas is evil, yes I understand the reasons for the blockade. If the blockade was causing Hamas to crumble in favor of moderates, I'd be all for it. It might be horribly inhumane, but war is inhumane and Israel and Hamas are at war. But what if the blockade has actually helped Hamas gain near totalitarian control in Gaza, while poisoning Israel's foreign relations? This is what all indications point to, and Israel will, at some point, have to admit this. I'm just afraid that Israel doesn't know what else to do.

- Jon