The Chinese Are Coming 06/10/2010
The route of the new pipeline to China
China’s move into Central Asia continued on Wednesday. At a bilateral summit in Tashkent, Uzbek President Karimov declared that “Uzbekistan strongly and unchangingly supports the well-balanced course of the Chinese leadership regarding...Taiwan and Tibet.” He later added that the two states would cooperate in the battle against the “three evils [of] terrorism, extremism, and separatism.”
Despite these pronouncements of unity and friendship, the subtext of the meeting was purely economic. The Chinese government has been diligently courting Uzbekistan as part of its effort secure access to resources for its energy-starved industries. In April 2007, for example, the two countries signed a deal to build a massive gas pipeline, leading from Turkmenistan to western China.
One remaining question is how Russia will react to these developments. Most of Central Asia’s oil and gas has traditionally flowed north towards Moscow. The Kremlin has also grown accustomed to exercising cultural and geopolitical dominance across the region. If China attempts to supplant Russia in its role of regional hegemon, it could trigger a dangerous competition over resources and influence.
Of course, a new Sino-Russian rivalry is not a preordained outcome. Russia is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the two sides have signed several pipeline deals of their own. Still, the Kremlin has never been very keen on sharing its ‘backyard’ with outsiders (just ask NATO). As the Chinese expand ever westward, they should be on the lookout for a snarling bear.
-Joe
Despite these pronouncements of unity and friendship, the subtext of the meeting was purely economic. The Chinese government has been diligently courting Uzbekistan as part of its effort secure access to resources for its energy-starved industries. In April 2007, for example, the two countries signed a deal to build a massive gas pipeline, leading from Turkmenistan to western China.
One remaining question is how Russia will react to these developments. Most of Central Asia’s oil and gas has traditionally flowed north towards Moscow. The Kremlin has also grown accustomed to exercising cultural and geopolitical dominance across the region. If China attempts to supplant Russia in its role of regional hegemon, it could trigger a dangerous competition over resources and influence.
Of course, a new Sino-Russian rivalry is not a preordained outcome. Russia is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the two sides have signed several pipeline deals of their own. Still, the Kremlin has never been very keen on sharing its ‘backyard’ with outsiders (just ask NATO). As the Chinese expand ever westward, they should be on the lookout for a snarling bear.
-Joe
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