The Future of Kyrgyzstan 08/18/2010
Doesn't look good, according to Anna Matveeva:
The long-term prospects are worrying, as the Uzbek minority realises that it is largely on its own with its problems. A renewal of the summer's clashes is at present is unlikely, as the community is shocked and scared. There are three possible templates for the future: that of Sri Lanka, where a powerful guerrilla organisation emerged after ethnic riots; that of Chechnya, where a nascent nationalist movement fell prey to Islamist networks; and that of Uzbekistan, which reacted to Andijan with overwhelming repression. None of these is very inspiring.
To resolve the situation, the ruling elite have to show a determined commitment to the ideology of multi-ethnic society instead of a "return to democracy" based on the titular group supremacy. Policy on interethnic relations and minority issues needs to be articulated, and a mechanism of reconciliation should be established to support it.
The long-term prospects are worrying, as the Uzbek minority realises that it is largely on its own with its problems. A renewal of the summer's clashes is at present is unlikely, as the community is shocked and scared. There are three possible templates for the future: that of Sri Lanka, where a powerful guerrilla organisation emerged after ethnic riots; that of Chechnya, where a nascent nationalist movement fell prey to Islamist networks; and that of Uzbekistan, which reacted to Andijan with overwhelming repression. None of these is very inspiring.
To resolve the situation, the ruling elite have to show a determined commitment to the ideology of multi-ethnic society instead of a "return to democracy" based on the titular group supremacy. Policy on interethnic relations and minority issues needs to be articulated, and a mechanism of reconciliation should be established to support it.
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