Should we switch places now?
Vladimir Putin and the word subtle do not usually appear in the same sentence. His typical response to Chechen terrorist attacks or criticism of the Russian political system has been to use foul language, threats, and bombastic rhetoric. Even the rather genial Barack Obama did not escape from a meeting with the Russian prime minister without a fairly severe tongue lashing.
This is why Putin’s performance in Sochi yesterday has people talking. At a meeting with fifty foreign reporters and academics, he coyly deflected questions about elections in 2012, claiming that he and President Medvedev had “not discussed it” but that neither of them would “do anything to contradict the constitution.” He then pointedly mentioned Franklin Delano Rooselvelt’s four “consecutive” terms as president of the United States.
The Russian constitution, which the loyalist Duma re-wrote in 2008, allows Putin to return to the presidency for two more six-year terms. That would mean he would surpass his new friend FDR in terms of time in office. Several headlines in Russia declared what to many now seems obvious: “Putin will stay until 2024!”
Where does that leave Medvedev? One option is that, as a Putin loyalist, he will accept the demotion and take the prime minister’s job. He could also find himself elbowed out if Putin’s FSB cronies choose to move against Medvedev’s more liberal camp. It is possible, however, that the current president would refuse to go quietly and instead try to run on his own high name recognition and popularity.
Of the potential situations, this one would be the most interesting—and the most dangerous for Russia.
This is why Putin’s performance in Sochi yesterday has people talking. At a meeting with fifty foreign reporters and academics, he coyly deflected questions about elections in 2012, claiming that he and President Medvedev had “not discussed it” but that neither of them would “do anything to contradict the constitution.” He then pointedly mentioned Franklin Delano Rooselvelt’s four “consecutive” terms as president of the United States.
The Russian constitution, which the loyalist Duma re-wrote in 2008, allows Putin to return to the presidency for two more six-year terms. That would mean he would surpass his new friend FDR in terms of time in office. Several headlines in Russia declared what to many now seems obvious: “Putin will stay until 2024!”
Where does that leave Medvedev? One option is that, as a Putin loyalist, he will accept the demotion and take the prime minister’s job. He could also find himself elbowed out if Putin’s FSB cronies choose to move against Medvedev’s more liberal camp. It is possible, however, that the current president would refuse to go quietly and instead try to run on his own high name recognition and popularity.
Of the potential situations, this one would be the most interesting—and the most dangerous for Russia.
