Information about the content and process of tomorrow’s referendum has changed almost daily over the last two months. I figured it was time to put together a quick backgrounder laying out what we know and what we don’t.
1. What’s up for vote? On Saturday, Egyptians will vote up or down on a bloc of nine constitutional amendments that would effectively end the longstanding state of emergency and address serious deficiencies in the Egyptian electoral system. Al Jazeera has a good breakdown of what the amendments will actually change here.
2. Who wrote the constitutional amendments? In mid-February, the ruling junta appointed an eight member panel of legal experts, former legislators, and representatives from both the Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt’s Coptic community to author the amendments.
3. How did military leaders influence the process? The Egyptian military has had little role in crafting the actual language of the amendments. After picking a panel they felt comfortable with, the generals left the authors alone. This move reflects the military’s desire to maintain their privileged position in Egyptian society while at the same time retreat from public scrutiny. As Nathan Brown puts it, “General Mohamed al-Tantawi is neither another dictator for life nor an Egyptian Cincinnatus; he and his colleagues seem to want to protect and return to their very comfortable (and extensive) enclave within the state apparatus.”
4. Who will administer the vote? The Egyptian military appointed a seven member committee composed of judicial officials and led by First Deputy Chairman of the State Council Mohamed Attiyeh to run the referendum. The committee in turn tapped thousands of judges to supervise polling places. These judges will be able to allow or deny independent election monitors access to polling places at will. Police and military will be present to provide security, although they will not (in theory) be allowed to enter polling places without permission from a judge. Not all Egyptian judges are happy with the arrangement. Earlier in the week, nearly 2000 prospective judicial election monitors announced they will boycott the election to protest what they claimed was the “political” appointment of judges to important polling stations.
1. What’s up for vote? On Saturday, Egyptians will vote up or down on a bloc of nine constitutional amendments that would effectively end the longstanding state of emergency and address serious deficiencies in the Egyptian electoral system. Al Jazeera has a good breakdown of what the amendments will actually change here.
2. Who wrote the constitutional amendments? In mid-February, the ruling junta appointed an eight member panel of legal experts, former legislators, and representatives from both the Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt’s Coptic community to author the amendments.
3. How did military leaders influence the process? The Egyptian military has had little role in crafting the actual language of the amendments. After picking a panel they felt comfortable with, the generals left the authors alone. This move reflects the military’s desire to maintain their privileged position in Egyptian society while at the same time retreat from public scrutiny. As Nathan Brown puts it, “General Mohamed al-Tantawi is neither another dictator for life nor an Egyptian Cincinnatus; he and his colleagues seem to want to protect and return to their very comfortable (and extensive) enclave within the state apparatus.”
4. Who will administer the vote? The Egyptian military appointed a seven member committee composed of judicial officials and led by First Deputy Chairman of the State Council Mohamed Attiyeh to run the referendum. The committee in turn tapped thousands of judges to supervise polling places. These judges will be able to allow or deny independent election monitors access to polling places at will. Police and military will be present to provide security, although they will not (in theory) be allowed to enter polling places without permission from a judge. Not all Egyptian judges are happy with the arrangement. Earlier in the week, nearly 2000 prospective judicial election monitors announced they will boycott the election to protest what they claimed was the “political” appointment of judges to important polling stations.
5. How does the Egyptian opposition view the amendments? Opposition and independent leaders including Mohamed ElBaradei, Amr Moussa, and Ayman Nour oppose the referendum and have alternately called for their supporters to vote no or boycott the referendum altogether. Opposition groups have registered three major objections: First, they disagree with that basic premise that the 1971 constitution can be fixed and instead favor the adoption of a new constitution. Second, they believe that the entire process leading up to the referendum was too opaque. And third, the opposition leaders want more time to debate the amendments. This last point seems to be particularly salient for many commentators who characterize the amendments as being “rammed through” by the military.
6. What is the Muslim Brotherhood’s take on the referendum? The Muslim Brotherhood officially supports the referendum and has used Friday prayers and its extensive network to drum up yes votes. (For more on why, see Nathan Brown’s article above.) That said, support for the referendum among Brothers is far from universal. The reformist wing of the Muslim Brotherhood publicly split with the leadership and announced that they will oppose the referendum.
7. Will Egyptians turn out to vote? Over 45 million Egyptians are eligible to vote (the judiciary, police and military are prohibited from voting) and unlike previous referendums and elections all signs indicate that many of them will. Both the yes and no camps have staged serious campaigns to rally their supporters and it seems that most Egyptian believe the vote will be fair, which will likely help turnout.
8. Will the referendum pass? There’s no accurate polling data, but if pressed I’d say the amendments will be adopted, albeit narrowly. The opposition is divided and there seems to be a growing segment of the population that wants to move forward with reforms so that life can get back to normal (revolutionary irony at its finest). BBC has some interesting interviews with Egyptians here and here providing a range of views.
9. What’s next? Regardless of the results, the military will decide what comes next. If the referendum passes, the junta has given every indication it intends to stick to the timeline and move forward with parliamentary elections in late spring, presidential elections later in the year, and ultimately a new constitution authored by the parliament. If the referendum doesn’t pass, some fear that the military will simply write and enact its own constitutional amendments.
Many in the opposition are committed to continuing to resist the military regime even as it tries to back out of politics. While I understand the desire for a clean start with a new constitution, it’s time to send the military back in the barracks and move on with civilian reforms, even if that process will be politically messy. The longer Egypt stays in the tumultuous initial phase of its revolution, the less likely it will be able to move on to the next.
6. What is the Muslim Brotherhood’s take on the referendum? The Muslim Brotherhood officially supports the referendum and has used Friday prayers and its extensive network to drum up yes votes. (For more on why, see Nathan Brown’s article above.) That said, support for the referendum among Brothers is far from universal. The reformist wing of the Muslim Brotherhood publicly split with the leadership and announced that they will oppose the referendum.
7. Will Egyptians turn out to vote? Over 45 million Egyptians are eligible to vote (the judiciary, police and military are prohibited from voting) and unlike previous referendums and elections all signs indicate that many of them will. Both the yes and no camps have staged serious campaigns to rally their supporters and it seems that most Egyptian believe the vote will be fair, which will likely help turnout.
8. Will the referendum pass? There’s no accurate polling data, but if pressed I’d say the amendments will be adopted, albeit narrowly. The opposition is divided and there seems to be a growing segment of the population that wants to move forward with reforms so that life can get back to normal (revolutionary irony at its finest). BBC has some interesting interviews with Egyptians here and here providing a range of views.
9. What’s next? Regardless of the results, the military will decide what comes next. If the referendum passes, the junta has given every indication it intends to stick to the timeline and move forward with parliamentary elections in late spring, presidential elections later in the year, and ultimately a new constitution authored by the parliament. If the referendum doesn’t pass, some fear that the military will simply write and enact its own constitutional amendments.
Many in the opposition are committed to continuing to resist the military regime even as it tries to back out of politics. While I understand the desire for a clean start with a new constitution, it’s time to send the military back in the barracks and move on with civilian reforms, even if that process will be politically messy. The longer Egypt stays in the tumultuous initial phase of its revolution, the less likely it will be able to move on to the next.
